Expectancy Matrix
Per-(pattern × stage × grade) realized profitability from the historical outcome pool. Every cell with ≥ 3 samples is listed — this is the complete landscape, not just top-N.
Cells53
Samples3183
Median expectancy-1.02%
Best cell15.66%channel_breakout|completed|A
Worst cell-22.36%triple_top|completed|C
Sourcesqlite
Stage
GradeMin samples
| Pattern | Stage | Grade | Samples | Win Rate ▼ | Avg Return | Expectancy | Sharpe | Max DD | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| downtrend line breakout | completed | B | 4 | 100.0%[51%–100%] | -5.81% | 0.00% | -125.81[-132.91–0.00] | -21.3% | 0.00 |
| cup with handle | completed | D | 11 | 81.8%[52%–95%] | 3.94% | 3.40% | 7.39[2.43–22.31] | -5.2% | 9.19 |
| channel breakout | completed | A | 52 | 80.8%[68%–89%] | 15.75% | 15.66% | 4.64[3.83–5.88] | -9.4% | 20.26 |
| channel breakout | completed | D | 7 | 71.4%[36%–92%] | 3.48% | 2.99% | 8.07[2.98–26.25] | -1.8% | 13.38 |
| channel breakout | completed | B | 51 | 64.7%[51%–76%] | -1.36% | 5.17% | -0.29[-2.03–1.82] | -100.0% | 3.14 |
| breakout retest hold | completed | B | 787 | 63.3%[60%–67%] | 7.01% | 1.13% | 1.78[1.27–2.36] | -100.0% | 2.82 |
| cup with handle | completed | B | 16 | 62.5%[39%–82%] | 2.27% | 2.27% | 3.69[0.14–9.42] | -7.5% | 3.08 |
| falling wedge | completed | D | 13 | 61.5%[36%–82%] | 0.45% | 0.45% | 0.65[-3.25–5.41] | -17.9% | 1.24 |
| ascending triangle | completed | B | 20 | 60.0%[39%–78%] | 2.13% | 1.53% | 3.47[0.26–8.58] | -10.2% | 2.80 |
| rectangle | completed | D | 10 | 60.0%[31%–83%] | 2.03% | 2.03% | 3.38[-0.74–9.88] | -4.4% | 3.27 |
| inverse head shoulders | completed | C | 40 | 50.0%[35%–65%] | 1.34% | 0.61% | 2.31[0.21–5.29] | -15.1% | 1.98 |
| cup with handle | completed | C | 33 | 48.5%[33%–65%] | 1.61% | 0.80% | 2.33[0.03–4.82] | -21.5% | 2.01 |
| ascending triangle | completed | C | 33 | 48.5%[33%–65%] | 1.49% | 0.20% | 3.04[0.66–6.28] | -10.1% | 2.13 |
| rounded base | completed | C | 35 | 45.7%[30%–62%] | 1.51% | 0.51% | 3.12[0.78–5.80] | -7.1% | 2.40 |
| bull flag | completed | D | 11 | 45.5%[21%–72%] | 2.10% | 1.19% | 4.00[0.12–13.42] | -4.5% | 2.96 |
| ascending triangle | completed | D | 7 | 42.9%[16%–75%] | 1.74% | -2.37% | 2.45[-2.78–15.44] | -7.6% | 1.82 |
| rounded base | completed | B | 100 | 42.0%[33%–52%] | 7.90% | -3.55% | 1.70[0.33–3.09] | -100.0% | 1.01 |
| double bottom | completed | C | 34 | 41.2%[26%–58%] | 1.03% | 0.24% | 1.44[-0.94–3.93] | -12.6% | 1.49 |
| rectangle | completed | C | 34 | 41.2%[26%–58%] | 1.27% | -0.09% | 2.55[0.17–6.33] | -10.8% | 1.75 |
| channel breakout | completed | C | 33 | 39.4%[25%–56%] | 1.04% | 0.36% | 2.73[0.67–5.19] | -5.1% | 1.93 |
| rectangle | completed | B | 16 | 37.5%[18%–61%] | 0.17% | -0.62% | 0.35[-2.93–4.59] | -7.9% | 0.95 |
| double bottom | completed | B | 17 | 35.3%[17%–59%] | -0.76% | -1.09% | -1.24[-5.63–2.08] | -25.6% | 0.63 |
| bull flag | completed | C | 31 | 32.3%[19%–50%] | 1.11% | -0.19% | 2.43[0.01–5.32] | -5.5% | 1.64 |
| inverse head shoulders | completed | B | 16 | 31.3%[14%–56%] | 0.41% | -0.48% | 0.59[-3.39–4.51] | -19.6% | 1.10 |
| breakout retest hold | completed | C | 479 | 29.4%[26%–34%] | 1.99% | -4.53% | 0.57[-0.06–1.23] | -100.0% | 0.86 |
| falling wedge | completed | B | 18 | 27.8%[13%–51%] | 0.27% | -0.73% | 0.56[-3.33–4.43] | -12.3% | 0.69 |
| rounded base | completed | D | 11 | 27.3%[10%–57%] | -0.49% | -0.72% | -0.91[-8.43–3.18] | -15.2% | 0.60 |
| ma reclaim | completed | D | 9 | 22.2%[6%–55%] | -0.23% | -0.84% | -0.37[-9.48–4.22] | -12.6% | 0.73 |
| ma reclaim | completed | B | 21 | 19.1%[8%–40%] | -0.26% | -1.10% | -0.45[-5.02–2.29] | -21.3% | 0.69 |
| bull flag | completed | B | 18 | 16.7%[6%–39%] | 0.06% | -2.11% | 0.12[-3.21–3.86] | -16.8% | 0.22 |
| falling wedge | completed | C | 29 | 13.8%[6%–31%] | -1.84% | -2.81% | -3.86[-7.47–-1.17] | -42.7% | 0.16 |
| ma reclaim | completed | C | 30 | 13.3%[5%–30%] | 0.17% | -2.35% | 0.32[-2.20–3.16] | -18.2% | 0.46 |
| double bottom | completed | D | 9 | 11.1%[2%–44%] | -1.06% | -3.67% | -1.40[-8.61–4.12] | -19.8% | 0.30 |
| rising wedge | completed | D | 19 | 5.3%[1%–25%] | 5.64% | -0.66% | 4.36[3.04–6.79] | -2.6% | 0.00 |
| head shoulders | completed | D | 70 | 4.3%[1%–12%] | -0.20% | -6.89% | -0.14[-1.97–1.50] | -90.8% | 0.00 |
| double top | completed | C | 257 | 2.7%[1%–6%] | 5.65% | -7.65% | 2.26[1.34–3.24] | -99.8% | 0.00 |
| descending triangle breakdown | completed | B | 92 | 2.2%[1%–8%] | 5.25% | -3.73% | 3.37[2.29–4.70] | -19.1% | 0.06 |
| rising wedge | completed | C | 49 | 2.0%[0%–11%] | 2.88% | -4.00% | 3.19[1.64–5.41] | -35.5% | 0.00 |
| head shoulders | completed | C | 286 | 1.4%[1%–4%] | -5.31% | -13.24% | -1.84[-2.55–-1.15] | -100.0% | 0.00 |
| head shoulders | completed | B | 180 | 0.6%[0%–3%] | 2.20% | -7.68% | 0.85[-0.13–1.89] | -94.1% | 0.00 |
| triple top | completed | C | 63 | 0.0%[0%–6%] | 7.49% | -22.36% | 1.95[0.13–4.60] | -99.8% | 0.00 |
| double top | completed | B | 25 | 0.0%[0%–13%] | 2.95% | -4.56% | 1.23[-2.56–2.83] | -21.8% | 0.00 |
| rising wedge | completed | B | 22 | 0.0%[0%–15%] | 9.01% | -4.81% | 2.75[1.56–5.33] | -15.1% | 0.00 |
| descending triangle breakdown | completed | C | 22 | 0.0%[0%–15%] | -1.96% | -7.37% | -1.90[-5.06–1.10] | -58.6% | 0.00 |
| triple top | completed | B | 18 | 0.0%[0%–18%] | 5.98% | -3.42% | 1.55[-26.01–3.64] | -28.1% | 0.00 |
| descending triangle breakdown | completed | A | 11 | 0.0%[0%–26%] | -7.13% | -7.13% | 0.00 | -55.7% | 0.00 |
| double top | completed | D | 8 | 0.0%[0%–32%] | 6.66% | -2.14% | 4.04[-0.32–8.54] | -5.2% | 0.00 |
| bear flag | completed | C | 6 | 0.0%[0%–39%] | 1.75% | -3.87% | 4.51[-0.96–4.51] | -3.9% | 0.00 |
| symmetrical triangle | completed | B | 5 | 0.0%[0%–43%] | 53.05% | -1.02% | 7.63[3.00–12.52] | -2.0% | 0.00 |
| ma bounce 50 | completed | B | 4 | 0.0%[0%–49%] | 23.86% | 0.00% | 11.66[0.00–18.76] | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| rectangle breakout | completed | B | 4 | 0.0%[0%–49%] | 13.16% | -4.80% | 3.91[0.00–13.17] | -9.4% | 0.00 |
| inverse head shoulders | completed | D | 4 | 0.0%[0%–49%] | -2.53% | -5.82% | -4.63[-41.84–54.72] | -10.5% | 0.00 |
| breakout retest hold | completed | D | 3 | 0.0%[0%–56%] | -15.41% | -15.41% | 0.00 | -39.5% | 0.00 |