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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
1890 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 1781, fixtures 109) Horizon: 5d 8/25/2026, 5:10:57 AM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · C 3 100.0%[44%–100%] -5.8% 11.2% -0.66[-35.57–4.01] -8.4% -5.97 ▸ 2 breakout retest hold · completed · B 480 59.0%[55%–63%] 2.2% 5.3% 3.13[2.64–3.63] -90.9% 2.77 ▸ 3 channel breakout · completed · B 16 56.3%[33%–77%] 0.3% 4.6% 1.42[-3.16–3.94] -18.8% 6.54 ▸ 4 channel breakout · completed · A 25 60.0%[41%–77%] 2.1% 3.9% 3.10[0.86–5.50] -18.2% 11.13 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · completed · C 177 38.4%[32%–46%] 1.4% 2.2% 2.37[1.56–3.20] -51.5% 4.49 ▸ 6 rounded base · completed · B 118 42.4%[34%–51%] 2.1% 1.9% 2.11[0.81–3.34] -65.1% 2.61 ▸ 7 rising wedge · completed · D 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 21.6% 0.0% 11.27[0.00–52.51] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 8 wyckoff distribution · completed · C 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 9 triple top · completed · C 38 2.6%[0%–14%] 0.1% -1.8% 3.64[2.02–5.09] -11.1% 22.91 ▸ 10 bear flag · completed · C 6 16.7%[3%–56%] 0.9% -1.9% 2.36[-5.03–9.71] -3.9% 16.19 ▸ 11 ma bounce 200 · completed · B 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 7.2% -1.9% 5.82[0.49–15.68] -3.7% 79.29 ▸ 12 rectangle breakout · completed · B 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.3% -2.2% 0.64[-9.42–13.17] -4.8% 4.08 ▸ 13 vcp · completed · C 3 33.3%[6%–79%] -11.0% -2.7% -1.05[-42.01–3.53] -24.3% -5.52 ▸ 14 rectangle breakout · completed · C 22 31.8%[16%–53%] -6.1% -2.9% -3.70[-8.57–-0.62] -55.5% -2.65 ▸ 15 triple top · completed · B 47 0.0%[0%–8%] -0.0% -3.2% 1.26[-0.78–3.01] -27.8% 2.00 ▸ 16 head shoulders · completed · B 166 0.0%[0%–2%] -0.0% -3.2% 1.60[0.51–2.47] -74.8% 1.03 ▸ 17 descending triangle breakdown · completed · B 121 0.8%[0%–5%] 2.3% -3.3% 3.18[2.04–4.28] -31.7% 5.16 ▸ 18 double top · completed · C 143 0.7%[0%–4%] 0.2% -3.4% 1.98[1.05–2.88] -71.8% 1.84 ▸ 19 rectangle breakout · completed · A 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.8% -3.9% -10.81[-204.13–-10.50] -18.2% -10.83 ▸ 20 head shoulders · completed · C 286 0.7%[0%–3%] 0.9% -3.9% 1.85[1.23–2.52] -83.1% 1.44
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 wyckoff distribution 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 4.8% 0.0% 6.82[4.86–18.27] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 descending triangle breakdown · transition 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 3.4% 0.0% 6.63[0.00–20.69] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 4 ma bounce 200 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 7.2% -3.0% 6.50[-0.60–6.50] -3.0% 78.94 ▸ 5 rising wedge · transition 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 2.8% -3.0% 5.78[0.59–156.91] -3.0% 67.06 ▸ 6 breakout retest hold · transition 54 61.1%[48%–73%] 3.6% 8.3% 4.66[3.35–6.21] -27.9% 20.98 ▸ 7 bear flag 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.9% -0.4% 4.21[-6.15–10.65] -0.6% 180.46 ▸ 8 descending triangle breakdown · bearish downtrend 169 0.6%[0%–3%] 2.6% -4.2% 3.06[2.01–4.10] -58.3% 2.70 ▸ 9 breakout retest hold · neutral range 11 63.6%[35%–85%] 1.6% 3.5% 2.94[-1.30–8.85] -18.1% 9.62 ▸ 10 double top · transition 35 0.0%[0%–10%] 2.1% -4.3% 2.76[1.42–4.19] -23.9% 9.46
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold 658 53.3%[50%–57%] 1.8% 4.5% 2.88[2.50–3.29] -94.0% 2.62 ▸ 2 channel breakout 44 61.4%[47%–74%] 0.5% 4.5% 2.13[0.05–3.47] -22.5% 6.96 ▸ 3 rounded base 118 42.4%[34%–51%] 2.1% 1.9% 2.11[0.81–3.34] -65.1% 2.61 ▸ 4 wyckoff distribution 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 5 bear flag 6 16.7%[3%–56%] 0.9% -1.9% 2.36[-5.03–9.71] -3.9% 16.19 ▸ 6 ma bounce 200 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 7.2% -1.9% 5.82[0.49–15.68] -3.7% 79.29 ▸ 7 triple top 85 1.2%[0%–6%] 0.1% -2.6% 2.47[1.29–3.62] -27.5% 5.24 ▸ 8 vcp 3 33.3%[6%–79%] -11.0% -2.7% -1.05[-42.01–3.53] -24.3% -5.52 ▸ 9 rectangle breakout 31 25.8%[14%–43%] -5.0% -3.0% -3.67[-7.26–-1.08] -60.7% -2.20 ▸ 10 double top 186 0.5%[0%–3%] 0.8% -3.5% 2.10[1.24–2.99] -35.8% 3.74