Expectancy Matrix

Per-(pattern × stage × grade) realized profitability from the historical outcome pool. Every cell with ≥ 3 samples is listed — this is the complete landscape, not just top-N.

Cells20

Samples1589

Median expectancy-3.29%

Best cell5.65%breakout_retest_hold|completed|B

Worst cell-10.17%descending_triangle_breakdown|comp…

Sourcesqlite

Stage

GradeMin samples

Pattern	Stage	Grade	Samples	Win Rate	Avg Return	Expectancy	Sharpe ▼	Max DD	Profit Factor
rising wedge	completed	D	3	0.0%[0%–56%]	18.16%	0.00%	11.27[0.00–52.51]	0.0%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	C	41	0.0%[0%–9%]	4.86%	-4.97%	6.16[3.65–10.23]	-18.6%	0.00
triple top	completed	C	30	0.0%[0%–11%]	6.32%	-2.17%	4.21[2.26–6.31]	-11.1%	0.00
double top	completed	B	39	0.0%[0%–9%]	3.44%	-4.42%	3.24[1.15–5.65]	-17.4%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	B	118	0.9%[0%–5%]	3.21%	-3.33%	3.19[2.04–4.29]	-31.7%	0.03
channel breakout	completed	A	25	60.0%[41%–77%]	4.01%	3.86%	3.10[0.84–5.46]	-18.2%	3.94
rising wedge	completed	C	12	0.0%[0%–24%]	4.12%	-4.85%	2.96[-0.58–6.32]	-7.4%	0.00
breakout retest hold	completed	B	436	60.8%[56%–65%]	4.61%	5.65%	2.85[2.37–3.32]	-90.9%	5.94
breakout retest hold	completed	C	169	39.1%[32%–47%]	4.32%	2.35%	2.28[1.51–3.06]	-51.5%	2.56
double top	completed	C	127	0.0%[0%–3%]	3.12%	-3.58%	2.27[1.28–3.33]	-71.8%	0.00
rounded base	completed	B	103	47.6%[38%–57%]	3.14%	2.24%	1.95[0.58–3.25]	-65.1%	2.07
head shoulders	completed	C	219	0.0%[0%–2%]	1.99%	-4.20%	1.53[0.77–2.26]	-83.1%	0.00
head shoulders	completed	B	162	0.0%[0%–2%]	1.31%	-3.25%	1.45[0.43–2.46]	-74.8%	0.00
channel breakout	completed	B	16	56.3%[33%–77%]	2.44%	4.58%	1.42[-3.18–3.71]	-18.8%	3.35
triple top	completed	B	41	0.0%[0%–9%]	1.09%	-3.06%	1.33[-0.85–3.36]	-27.8%	0.00
head shoulders	completed	D	23	0.0%[0%–14%]	1.51%	-6.03%	1.03[-2.31–3.58]	-36.4%	0.00
rectangle breakout	completed	B	4	25.0%[5%–70%]	0.39%	-2.17%	0.64[-9.42–13.17]	-4.8%	1.19
rising wedge	completed	B	12	0.0%[0%–24%]	-2.31%	-4.12%	-4.02[-11.05–0.03]	-31.7%	0.00
rectangle breakout	completed	A	5	0.0%[0%–43%]	-3.90%	-3.90%	-10.81[-204.13–-10.59]	-18.2%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	A	4	0.0%[0%–49%]	-10.17%	-10.17%	-20.94[-988.88–0.00]	-35.0%	0.00