Expectancy Matrix

Per-(pattern × stage × grade) realized profitability from the historical outcome pool. Every cell with ≥ 3 samples is listed — this is the complete landscape, not just top-N.

Cells10

Samples2004

Median expectancy-2.10%

Best cell3.55%ma_bounce_200|completed|B

Worst cell-3.82%ma_bounce_50|completed|B

Sourcesqlite

Stage

GradeMin samples

Pattern	Stage	Grade	Samples	Win Rate	Avg Return	Expectancy ▼	Sharpe	Max DD	Profit Factor
ma bounce 200	completed	B	10	70.0%[40%–89%]	4.21%	3.55%	2.38[-1.84–9.90]	-26.9%	3.77
rounded base	completed	B	107	12.2%[7%–20%]	1.63%	0.02%	0.88[-0.33–1.72]	-37.3%	1.24
breakout retest hold	completed	B	746	30.0%[27%–33%]	0.16%	-1.19%	0.20[-0.29–0.70]	-95.0%	0.65
ma bounce 200	completed	C	7	28.6%[8%–64%]	-0.35%	-1.93%	-0.56[-7.41–6.25]	-9.3%	0.64
rounded base	completed	C	28	14.3%[6%–31%]	0.08%	-1.95%	0.18[-2.50–3.37]	-14.9%	0.25
channel breakout	completed	B	12	0.0%[0%–24%]	0.10%	-2.25%	0.28[-3.68–4.94]	-5.5%	0.00
breakout retest hold	completed	C	1061	17.6%[15%–20%]	-0.80%	-2.46%	-1.02[-1.49–-0.57]	-100.0%	0.33
breakout retest hold	completed	D	17	11.8%[3%–34%]	1.64%	-2.68%	1.96[-1.98–4.75]	-10.9%	0.00
rounded base	completed	A	10	0.0%[0%–28%]	-2.77%	-3.51%	-6.55[-12.24–-4.28]	-25.1%	0.00
ma bounce 50	completed	B	6	50.0%[19%–81%]	-5.25%	-3.82%	-6.51[-19.42–-1.21]	-28.3%	0.08