Expectancy Matrix

Per-(pattern × stage × grade) realized profitability from the historical outcome pool. Every cell with ≥ 3 samples is listed — this is the complete landscape, not just top-N.

Cells21

Samples1766

Median expectancy-3.24%

Best cell5.31%breakout_retest_hold|completed|B

Worst cell-10.17%descending_triangle_breakdown|comp…

Sourcesqlite

Stage

GradeMin samples

Pattern	Stage	Grade	Samples	Win Rate	Avg Return	Expectancy ▼	Sharpe	Max DD	Profit Factor
breakout retest hold	completed	B	480	59.0%[55%–63%]	5.00%	5.31%	3.13[2.68–3.60]	-90.9%	6.09
channel breakout	completed	B	16	56.3%[33%–77%]	2.44%	4.58%	1.42[-3.18–3.71]	-18.8%	3.35
channel breakout	completed	A	25	60.0%[41%–77%]	4.01%	3.86%	3.10[0.84–5.46]	-18.2%	3.94
breakout retest hold	completed	C	177	38.4%[32%–46%]	4.59%	2.23%	2.37[1.57–3.14]	-51.5%	2.44
rounded base	completed	B	118	42.4%[34%–51%]	3.37%	1.86%	2.11[0.88–3.28]	-65.1%	1.98
rising wedge	completed	D	3	0.0%[0%–56%]	18.16%	0.00%	11.27[0.00–52.51]	0.0%	0.00
triple top	completed	C	37	0.0%[0%–9%]	5.16%	-1.82%	3.70[2.05–5.38]	-11.1%	0.00
ma bounce 200	completed	B	6	0.0%[0%–39%]	5.85%	-1.87%	5.82[0.56–15.68]	-3.7%	0.00
rectangle breakout	completed	B	4	25.0%[5%–70%]	0.39%	-2.17%	0.64[-9.42–13.17]	-4.8%	1.19
triple top	completed	B	47	0.0%[0%–8%]	1.10%	-3.19%	1.26[-0.68–3.10]	-27.8%	0.00
head shoulders	completed	B	166	0.0%[0%–2%]	1.53%	-3.24%	1.60[0.51–2.46]	-74.8%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	B	121	0.8%[0%–5%]	3.24%	-3.32%	3.18[2.12–4.31]	-31.7%	0.03
double top	completed	C	140	0.0%[0%–3%]	2.72%	-3.47%	2.06[1.20–2.90]	-71.8%	0.00
rectangle breakout	completed	A	5	0.0%[0%–43%]	-3.90%	-3.90%	-10.81[-204.13–-10.59]	-18.2%	0.00
head shoulders	completed	C	282	0.0%[0%–1%]	2.42%	-3.98%	1.88[1.13–2.53]	-83.1%	0.00
rising wedge	completed	B	12	0.0%[0%–24%]	-2.31%	-4.12%	-4.02[-11.05–0.03]	-31.7%	0.00
double top	completed	B	41	0.0%[0%–9%]	3.05%	-4.45%	2.86[0.72–5.18]	-17.4%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	C	44	0.0%[0%–8%]	4.83%	-4.71%	5.99[3.56–9.28]	-18.6%	0.00
rising wedge	completed	C	12	0.0%[0%–24%]	4.12%	-4.85%	2.96[-0.58–6.32]	-7.4%	0.00
head shoulders	completed	D	25	0.0%[0%–13%]	2.28%	-5.81%	1.46[-1.40–3.90]	-36.4%	0.00
descending triangle breakdown	completed	A	5	0.0%[0%–43%]	-7.73%	-10.17%	-8.82[-32.10–-2.32]	-35.0%	0.00