MarketBotsLab

Options Income Lab · Identifier

Best Options Today

One ranked board across every income strategy we model. Each pick blends two independent witnesses — the option market's own delta-implied odds and a ~5-year backtest of the exact entry/exit rule on that symbol — and only earns the top tier when both agree. Back to the strategy hub ↩

Updated 5h ago · 72 picks across 24 symbols · 72 live-quoted · refreshed daily before the open

Earnings dates are unavailable from the free providers right now, so single-stock picks are capped at HIGH (never VERY HIGH) and carry a confirm-earnings note. Index ETFs (SPY/QQQ/IWM/DIA) are exempt — they have no earnings.

Pooled backtest across the universe: cash secured put 73% win / -0.10% avg per trade (936 trades) · put credit spread 73% win / 0.17% avg per trade (936 trades) · covered call 62% win / 1.73% avg per trade (936 trades)

Very High Win Probability (0)

Every gate passed: live quote, liquid market, model ≥75%, blended ≥80%, backtest Wilson-low ≥60% with positive expectancy, and the earnings coast is known clear.

Nothing qualifies today — the gates are strict on purpose. The best candidates and the gate each one missed are listed under High below.

High Win Probability (34)

Blended win probability ≥70%. Usually one gate short of the top tier — check the risk notes for which.

UNHPut Credit Spread88% win · score 88.7

SELL 1× UNH 2026-11-20 $340 PUT / BUY 1× $320 PUT for ~$2.91 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,709 per spread.

model 82%backtest 90% over 39 trades~148%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
XOMPut Credit Spread86% win · score 86.8

SELL 1× XOM 2026-11-20 $155 PUT / BUY 1× $145 PUT for ~$1.24 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$876 per spread.

model 81%backtest 87% over 39 trades~123%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
JPMPut Credit Spread82% win · score 83.5

SELL 1× JPM 2026-11-20 $310 PUT / BUY 1× $295 PUT for ~$1.88 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,313 per spread.

model 81%backtest 82% over 39 trades~124%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
CVXPut Credit Spread82% win · score 83.4

SELL 1× CVX 2026-11-20 $195 PUT / BUY 1× $185 PUT for ~$1.36 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$864 per spread.

model 81%backtest 82% over 39 trades~137%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
WMTPut Credit Spread80% win · score 82.6

SELL 1× WMT 2026-11-20 $105 PUT / BUY 1× $100 PUT for ~$0.97 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$403 per spread.

model 75%backtest 82% over 39 trades~209%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
DIAPut Credit Spread80% win · score 81.7

SELL 1× DIA 2026-11-20 $495 PUT / BUY 1× $470 PUT for ~$2.06 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,294 per spread.

model 80%backtest 79% over 39 trades~78%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
KOPut Credit Spread79% win · score 80.5

SELL 1× KO 2026-11-20 $82.5 PUT / BUY 1× $77.5 PUT for ~$0.42 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$458 per spread.

model 84%backtest 77% over 39 trades~80%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.8

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-11-20 $62.5 PUT / BUY 1× $60 PUT for ~$0.41 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$209 per spread.

model 83%backtest 74% over 39 trades~171%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
BACPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.7

SELL 1× BAC 2026-11-20 $50 PUT / BUY 1× $47 PUT for ~$0.33 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$268 per spread.

model 82%backtest 74% over 39 trades~106%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
COSTPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.6

SELL 1× COST 2026-11-20 $895 PUT / BUY 1× $850 PUT for ~$4.95 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$4,006 per spread.

model 81%backtest 74% over 39 trades~107%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 20%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.4

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-11-20 $330 PUT / BUY 1× $310 PUT for ~$3.16 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,685 per spread.

model 80%backtest 74% over 39 trades~163%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
PGPut Credit Spread75% win · score 77.3

SELL 1× PG 2026-11-20 $140 PUT / BUY 1× $135 PUT for ~$0.50 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$450 per spread.

model 84%backtest 72% over 39 trades~97%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNPut Credit Spread74% win · score 77

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-11-20 $235 PUT / BUY 1× $225 PUT for ~$1.54 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$847 per spread.

model 82%backtest 72% over 39 trades~158%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
IWMPut Credit Spread74% win · score 76.8

SELL 1× IWM 2026-11-20 $264 PUT / BUY 1× $251 PUT for ~$1.33 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,167 per spread.

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~99%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
NVDAPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-11-20 $210 PUT / BUY 1× $200 PUT for ~$1.62 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$838 per spread.

model 79%backtest 69% over 39 trades~168%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCash-Secured Put86% win · score 69.8

SELL 1× UNH 2026-11-20 $340 PUT for ~$4.85 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$33,515 per contract.

model 82%backtest 87% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
XOMCash-Secured Put86% win · score 68.2

SELL 1× XOM 2026-11-20 $155 PUT for ~$1.80 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$15,320 per contract.

model 81%backtest 87% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCash-Secured Put86% win · score 68.2

SELL 1× CVX 2026-11-20 $195 PUT for ~$2.26 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$19,274 per contract.

model 81%backtest 87% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCash-Secured Put80% win · score 66.9

SELL 1× WMT 2026-11-20 $105 PUT for ~$1.75 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$10,325 per contract.

model 75%backtest 82% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
BACCash-Secured Put82% win · score 64.2

SELL 1× BAC 2026-11-20 $50 PUT for ~$0.51 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$4,949 per contract.

model 82%backtest 82% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
JPMCash-Secured Put82% win · score 64

SELL 1× JPM 2026-11-20 $310 PUT for ~$3.13 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$30,688 per contract.

model 81%backtest 82% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
DIACash-Secured Put82% win · score 61.9

SELL 1× DIA 2026-11-20 $495 PUT for ~$3.20 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$49,180 per contract.

model 80%backtest 82% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
KOCash-Secured Put80% win · score 61

SELL 1× KO 2026-11-20 $82.5 PUT for ~$0.58 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$8,192 per contract.

model 84%backtest 79% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
IWMCash-Secured Put78% win · score 60

SELL 1× IWM 2026-11-20 $264 PUT for ~$2.38 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$26,162 per contract.

model 80%backtest 77% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCash-Secured Put72% win · score 59.4

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-11-20 $330 PUT for ~$5.53 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$32,448 per contract.

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCash-Secured Put78% win · score 59.2

SELL 1× COST 2026-11-20 $895 PUT for ~$6.63 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$88,838 per contract.

model 81%backtest 77% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 20%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNCash-Secured Put72% win · score 58.9

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-11-20 $235 PUT for ~$3.63 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$23,138 per contract.

model 82%backtest 69% over 39 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
METACovered Call72% win · score 58.2

Own 100 shares of META; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $825 CALL for ~$10.53 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
HDCash-Secured Put72% win · score 58.2

SELL 1× HD 2026-11-20 $270 PUT for ~$4.00 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$26,600 per contract.

model 79%backtest 69% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 32%LIVE QUOTE
PGCash-Secured Put75% win · score 56.3

SELL 1× PG 2026-11-20 $140 PUT for ~$1.02 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$13,898 per contract.

model 84%backtest 72% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
KOCovered Call75% win · score 55.4

Own 100 shares of KO; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $95 CALL for ~$0.50 credit (42 DTE).

model 84%backtest 72% over 39 trades~5%/yr yieldIV 20%LIVE QUOTE
DIACovered Call74% win · score 54.3

Own 100 shares of DIA; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $538 CALL for ~$2.29 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 72% over 39 trades~4%/yr yieldIV 13%LIVE QUOTE
SPYCovered Call74% win · score 54

Own 100 shares of SPY; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $810 CALL for ~$2.69 credit (42 DTE).

model 82%backtest 72% over 39 trades~3%/yr yieldIV 11%LIVE QUOTE
IWMCovered Call72% win · score 53.6

Own 100 shares of IWM; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $295 CALL for ~$1.77 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 17%LIVE QUOTE

Moderate (37)

Blended 55–70% — playable, but the edge is thinner.

SPYPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75.2

SELL 1× SPY 2026-11-20 $747 PUT / BUY 1× $710 PUT for ~$2.79 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$3,421 per spread.

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~71%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
HDPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75

SELL 1× HD 2026-11-20 $270 PUT / BUY 1× $255 PUT for ~$2.33 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,267 per spread.

model 79%backtest 69% over 39 trades~160%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 32%LIVE QUOTE
AMDPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.8

SELL 1× AMD 2026-11-20 $530 PUT / BUY 1× $500 PUT for ~$5.13 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,488 per spread.

model 81%backtest 67% over 39 trades~179%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
METAPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.6

SELL 1× META 2026-11-20 $650 PUT / BUY 1× $615 PUT for ~$6.08 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,892 per spread.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~183%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
TSLAPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.5

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-11-20 $345 PUT / BUY 1× $330 PUT for ~$2.80 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,220 per spread.

model 79%backtest 67% over 39 trades~200%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLPut Credit Spread68% win · score 72.2

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-11-20 $320 PUT / BUY 1× $305 PUT for ~$2.14 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,286 per spread.

model 82%backtest 64% over 39 trades~145%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTPut Credit Spread66% win · score 70.5

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-11-20 $490 PUT / BUY 1× $465 PUT for ~$3.42 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,159 per spread.

model 81%backtest 62% over 39 trades~138%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 32%LIVE QUOTE
QQQPut Credit Spread66% win · score 70.4

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-11-20 $708 PUT / BUY 1× $675 PUT for ~$3.39 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,961 per spread.

model 80%backtest 62% over 39 trades~100%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLPut Credit Spread62% win · score 67.5

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-11-20 $310 PUT / BUY 1× $295 PUT for ~$1.85 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,315 per spread.

model 82%backtest 56% over 39 trades~123%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
AMDCash-Secured Put68% win · score 60

SELL 1× AMD 2026-11-20 $530 PUT for ~$12.25 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$51,775 per contract.

model 81%backtest 64% over 39 trades~21%/yr yieldIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
METACash-Secured Put70% win · score 59.1

SELL 1× META 2026-11-20 $650 PUT for ~$12.35 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$63,765 per contract.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCash-Secured Put72% win · score 59

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-11-20 $62.5 PUT for ~$0.96 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$6,154 per contract.

model 83%backtest 69% over 39 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
TSLACash-Secured Put68% win · score 57.8

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-11-20 $345 PUT for ~$6.75 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$33,825 per contract.

model 79%backtest 64% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACash-Secured Put68% win · score 56.6

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-11-20 $210 PUT for ~$3.70 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$20,630 per contract.

model 79%backtest 64% over 39 trades~16%/yr yieldIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCovered Call70% win · score 55.8

Own 100 shares of AVGO; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $410 CALL for ~$4.72 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACovered Call70% win · score 55.3

Own 100 shares of NVDA; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $255 CALL for ~$2.83 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 67% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 33%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCovered Call69% win · score 55.2

Own 100 shares of WMT; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $120 CALL for ~$1.46 credit (42 DTE).

model 76%backtest 67% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCash-Secured Put68% win · score 54.9

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-11-20 $320 PUT for ~$4.45 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,555 per contract.

model 82%backtest 64% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCovered Call67% win · score 54.9

Own 100 shares of UNH; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $420 CALL for ~$5.63 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 64% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 36%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNCovered Call68% win · score 53.9

Own 100 shares of AMZN; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $295 CALL for ~$3.22 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 64% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCovered Call68% win · score 53.6

Own 100 shares of GOOGL; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $395 CALL for ~$4.20 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCash-Secured Put66% win · score 52.6

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-11-20 $490 PUT for ~$6.30 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$48,370 per contract.

model 81%backtest 62% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 32%LIVE QUOTE
SPYCash-Secured Put70% win · score 52.1

SELL 1× SPY 2026-11-20 $747 PUT for ~$4.81 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$74,219 per contract.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
QQQCovered Call70% win · score 51.8

Own 100 shares of QQQ; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $791 CALL for ~$4.49 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~5%/yr yieldIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
BACCovered Call64% win · score 51.7

Own 100 shares of BAC; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $57.5 CALL for ~$0.70 credit (42 DTE).

model 73%backtest 62% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 24%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCovered Call62% win · score 51.1

Own 100 shares of NFLX; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $80 CALL for ~$1.15 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 56% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCovered Call65% win · score 51.1

Own 100 shares of CVX; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $230 CALL for ~$2.31 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 62% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
XOMCovered Call66% win · score 50.6

Own 100 shares of XOM; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $185 CALL for ~$1.54 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 62% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
QQQCash-Secured Put66% win · score 50.5

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-11-20 $708 PUT for ~$6.55 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$70,145 per contract.

model 80%backtest 62% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCash-Secured Put64% win · score 49.9

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-11-20 $310 PUT for ~$3.30 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$30,670 per contract.

model 82%backtest 59% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
JPMCovered Call66% win · score 49.6

Own 100 shares of JPM; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $360 CALL for ~$2.40 credit (42 DTE).

model 82%backtest 62% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCovered Call62% win · score 48.2

Own 100 shares of MSFT; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $585 CALL for ~$5.92 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 56% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCovered Call64% win · score 47.5

Own 100 shares of COST; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $1000 CALL for ~$6.47 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 59% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 18%LIVE QUOTE
AMDCovered Call56% win · score 47.1

Own 100 shares of AMD; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $730 CALL for ~$10.30 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 49% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCovered Call60% win · score 45.8

Own 100 shares of AAPL; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $360 CALL for ~$3.25 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 54% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 24%LIVE QUOTE
HDCovered Call58% win · score 45.4

Own 100 shares of HD; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $320 CALL for ~$3.38 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 51% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 30%LIVE QUOTE
PGCovered Call58% win · score 43.4

Own 100 shares of PG; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $160 CALL for ~$1.23 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 51% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 21%LIVE QUOTE

Speculative (1)

Below 55% blended — listed for completeness, not conviction.

TSLACovered Call54% win · score 44

Own 100 shares of TSLA; SELL 1× 2026-11-20 $440 CALL for ~$5.47 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 46% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE

Quotes are 15-minute-delayed (CBOE); model prices are Black-Scholes on realized volatility. Backtests replay the exact entry/exit rule on ~5 years of daily closes with strikes re-derived per entry — modeled fills, not broker fills. This is analytical opinion, not investment advice; options involve substantial risk of loss. Do your own due diligence.

Pricing modes

  • Model — Black-Scholes premium estimated from 60-day historical volatility. Risk-free rate is implicit at zero. Greeks (delta) are computed from the same model.
  • Live chain — bid / ask / mid / IV / Greeks pulled from the option chain endpoint when available. Mid is used for yield math; risk-flag wide_spreadfires when bid/ask > 5%.
  • Hybrid — live chain when present; falls back to model. The status bar surfaces the actual source per request.

Strategy mechanics

  • Covered call — own 100 shares, sell a short call. Premium = income cap, strike = sell price ceiling. Breakeven = purchase price − premium received.
  • Cash-secured put — set aside strike × 100 cash, sell a short put. Breakeven = strike − premium. Capital required = strike × 100 per contract.
  • Wheel — sell CSPs until assigned, hold the stock, sell CCs until called away, then restart. Adjusted basis tracks premium received less stock losses.

Scoring (composite 0..100)

Each strategy decomposes into 6–8 weighted axes — premium quality, assignment fit, downside risk, liquidity, IV attractiveness, event risk, historical outcome, goal fit. The composite is multiplied by a risk-penalty product (each ≤ 1.0) so wide-spread, low-sample, model-only, or earnings- inside-DTE setups grade down even with a strong raw composite.

Premium quality currently grades the realised premium yield directly (1% → 75, then log-scaled: 2% → 83, 4% → 92, 8%+ → 100). The HV-norm ratio branch (40 + ratio × 60, where ratio = yield ÷ HV-implied fair yield) is not active yet — it is reserved for the live-chain integration, since a norm derived from the same HV that prices the model premium would be circular.

Confidence grading

  • n < 5 — Very low (do not rank as strong)
  • 5..10 — Low
  • 10..20 — Moderate
  • 20..50 — Good
  • ≥ 50 — High

Model-only premium and missing liquidity data each downgrade by one tier.

Decision labels

  • Conservative income — low delta, broad breakeven, low assignment risk.
  • Balanced income — 0.20–0.35 delta band, moderate premium + assignment.
  • Aggressive income — higher delta, higher premium, frequent assignment.
  • Exit strategy — high-delta call on shares you want to exit.
  • Assignment candidate — CSP at a strike you want to own.
  • Avoid chasing premium — composite low or risk penalties dominate.

Limitations & disclaimer

Liquidity, spread, IV rank, open interest, earnings date, and ex-dividend date are surfaced only when the upstream provider supplies them. Missing fields render explicit fallback labels ( Unrated, N/A) — never fake values. Backtests assume entries from a deterministic rule and exit at expiration; real-world slippage, commissions, and early-assignment outcomes are not modelled. This page surfaces analytical projections derived from public market data — not personalised investment advice. Options involve risk, including loss of principal and the risk of assignment. Do your own due diligence and manage risk according to your situation.

Success rate
Share of historical trades that finished above the short strike at expiration (CC) / above the put strike (CSP).
Strict success
Share of trades that hit success without ever touching the assignment zone intraday.
Premium yield
Premium received / capital required, per trade. CC denominator = stock cost; CSP denominator = strike × 100.
Annualized return
Mean of each historical trade's annualized total return, (1 + trade return) ^ (365 / DTE) − 1. Because it averages per-trade annualized ratios, short high-percentage winners pull it above annualizing the average return (Jensen's inequality) — read it as an upper bound, not a sustainable yield. The honest headline annualizes the mean return instead; the inflated_annualized risk flag fires when this figure exceeds 50%.
Median return
Median total return (premium + stock P&L) across the historical sample.
P10 / P90
10th / 90th percentile total return — the tails of the historical distribution.
Assigned
Share of historical trades where the short option finished ITM and shares were transferred at the strike.
OTM
Out-of-the-money at expiration — the short option expired worthless.
Deep ITM
Short option finished significantly past the strike (e.g. > 2% past) — missed upside on CC, larger loss on CSP.
Breakeven
CC: stock cost − premium received. CSP: strike − premium received.
Max profit
CC if assigned: strike − stock cost + premium. CSP if expires OTM: premium received.
Downside exposure
Stock value declines reduce CC returns; CSP loses if stock falls below breakeven.
Assignment probability
Probability the short option finishes ITM at expiration (delta is a rough proxy).
Early assignment risk
ITM short calls are at risk of assignment before expiration when ex-dividend falls inside the trade and remaining extrinsic value is below the dividend.
Opportunity cost
Returns forgone vs simply holding the stock — capped upside on CC, time-locked cash on CSP.
Missed upside
Gain above the strike that CC trader did not capture due to the cap.
Downside capture
Share of stock-only downside the strategy retained, even after premium offset.
Stock-only return
Hypothetical return of just holding the stock over the same window — baseline comparison.
CC excess return vs stock
Covered-call return minus stock-only return. Positive when premium > foregone upside.
CSP excess return vs cash
Premium yield on collateral minus cash / T-bill return over the same window.
Wheel cycle P&L
Total premium + stock P&L from one CSP → assignment → CC → called-away rotation.
Days in stock
Calendar days the wheel held assigned shares during the cycle.
Capital efficiency
Annualised return on capital, accounting for days-in-cash vs days-in-stock.
IV rank
Where current implied volatility sits in its 52-week range (0..100).
IV percentile
Share of days in the past 252 trading days where IV was below today's level.
Bid/ask spread
(ask − bid) / mid. Wide spreads make modelled mid yields harder to execute.
Open interest
Outstanding contracts on the strike. Below 100 makes the option illiquid.
Option volume
Today's traded contracts on the strike. Below 50/day is illiquid.
Liquidity grade
A / B / C / D / Unrated derived from bid/ask spread, OI, and volume.
Low-N sample warning
Backtest with n < 20 → low confidence; n < 5 → very low (do not treat as repeatable).