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Options Income Lab · Identifier

Best Options Today

One ranked board across every income strategy we model. Each pick blends two independent witnesses — the option market's own delta-implied odds and a ~5-year backtest of the exact entry/exit rule on that symbol — and only earns the top tier when both agree. Back to the strategy hub ↩

Updated 12h ago · 72 picks across 24 symbols · 61 live-quoted · refreshed daily before the open

Earnings dates are unavailable from the free providers right now, so single-stock picks are capped at HIGH (never VERY HIGH) and carry a confirm-earnings note. Index ETFs (SPY/QQQ/IWM/DIA) are exempt — they have no earnings. Set FINNHUB_API_KEY to unlock earnings-aware tiering.

Pooled backtest across the universe: cash secured put 72% win / -0.12% avg per trade (936 trades) · put credit spread 72% win / -0.54% avg per trade (936 trades) · covered call 64% win / 2.18% avg per trade (936 trades)

Very High Win Probability (0)

Every gate passed: live quote, liquid market, model ≥75%, blended ≥80%, backtest Wilson-low ≥60% with positive expectancy, and the earnings coast is known clear.

Nothing qualifies today — the gates are strict on purpose. The best candidates and the gate each one missed are listed under High below.

High Win Probability (38)

Blended win probability ≥70%. Usually one gate short of the top tier — check the risk notes for which.

WMTPut Credit Spread92% win · score 92

SELL 1× WMT 2026-08-21 $105 PUT / BUY 1× $100 PUT for ~$0.71 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$430 per spread.

model 81%backtest 95% over 39 trades~143%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 30%LIVE QUOTE
KOPut Credit Spread81% win · score 82.3

SELL 1× KO 2026-08-21 $77.5 PUT / BUY 1× $72.5 PUT for ~$0.35 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$466 per spread.

model 85%backtest 79% over 39 trades~64%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
CVXPut Credit Spread80% win · score 81.7

SELL 1× CVX 2026-08-21 $163.93 PUT / BUY 1× $155.74 PUT for ~$1.23 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$697 per spread.

model 80%backtest 79% over 39 trades~153%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 26%MODEL PRICE
PGPut Credit Spread79% win · score 80.5

SELL 1× PG 2026-08-21 $135 PUT / BUY 1× $130 PUT for ~$0.49 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$451 per spread.

model 84%backtest 77% over 39 trades~96%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
COSTPut Credit Spread78% win · score 80.2

SELL 1× COST 2026-08-21 $860 PUT / BUY 1× $815 PUT for ~$4.74 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$4,026 per spread.

model 81%backtest 77% over 39 trades~102%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
BACPut Credit Spread77% win · score 79

SELL 1× BAC 2026-08-21 $55 PUT / BUY 1× $52.5 PUT for ~$0.24 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$226 per spread.

model 84%backtest 74% over 39 trades~94%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.5

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-08-21 $320 PUT / BUY 1× $305 PUT for ~$2.39 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,261 per spread.

model 81%backtest 74% over 39 trades~165%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
IWMPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.4

SELL 1× IWM 2026-08-21 $280 PUT / BUY 1× $265 PUT for ~$1.56 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,344 per spread.

model 80%backtest 74% over 39 trades~101%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
JPMPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.4

SELL 1× JPM 2026-08-21 $318.06 PUT / BUY 1× $302.16 PUT for ~$2.22 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,368 per spread.

model 80%backtest 74% over 39 trades~141%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%MODEL PRICE
NFLXPut Credit Spread76% win · score 78.3

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-08-21 $65 PUT / BUY 1× $62 PUT for ~$0.59 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$241 per spread.

model 79%backtest 74% over 39 trades~215%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 47%LIVE QUOTE
HDPut Credit Spread74% win · score 76.8

SELL 1× HD 2026-08-21 $318.97 PUT / BUY 1× $303.02 PUT for ~$2.54 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,341 per spread.

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~164%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%MODEL PRICE
UNHPut Credit Spread73% win · score 76.5

SELL 1× UNH 2026-08-21 $390 PUT / BUY 1× $370 PUT for ~$3.48 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,652 per spread.

model 78%backtest 72% over 39 trades~183%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
XOMPut Credit Spread73% win · score 76.1

SELL 1× XOM 2026-08-21 $130 PUT / BUY 1× $125 PUT for ~$1.00 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$400 per spread.

model 75%backtest 72% over 39 trades~217%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCash-Secured Put92% win · score 73.6

SELL 1× WMT 2026-08-21 $105 PUT for ~$1.26 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$10,374 per contract.

model 81%backtest 95% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 30%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCash-Secured Put78% win · score 67.3

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-08-21 $65 PUT for ~$1.44 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$6,356 per contract.

model 79%backtest 77% over 39 trades~20%/yr yieldIV 47%LIVE QUOTE
METACash-Secured Put74% win · score 65.9

SELL 1× META 2026-08-21 $585 PUT for ~$14.85 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$57,015 per contract.

model 79%backtest 72% over 39 trades~23%/yr yieldIV 52%LIVE QUOTE
KOCash-Secured Put83% win · score 62.7

SELL 1× KO 2026-08-21 $77.5 PUT for ~$0.53 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$7,697 per contract.

model 85%backtest 82% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCash-Secured Put72% win · score 62.6

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-08-21 $350 PUT for ~$7.70 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$34,230 per contract.

model 81%backtest 69% over 39 trades~20%/yr yieldIV 51%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCash-Secured Put80% win · score 62.6

SELL 1× CVX 2026-08-21 $163.93 PUT for ~$1.76 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$16,217 per contract.

model 80%backtest 79% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 26%MODEL PRICE
AMZNCash-Secured Put74% win · score 62.4

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-08-21 $220 PUT for ~$4.22 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$21,578 per contract.

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 43%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCovered Call74% win · score 61.5

Own 100 shares of AVGO; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $470 CALL for ~$7.13 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~16%/yr yieldIV 49%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCash-Secured Put73% win · score 61.5

SELL 1× UNH 2026-08-21 $390 PUT for ~$7.08 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$38,293 per contract.

model 78%backtest 72% over 39 trades~16%/yr yieldIV 37%LIVE QUOTE
METACovered Call72% win · score 60.6

Own 100 shares of META; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $795 CALL for ~$12.50 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 55%LIVE QUOTE
BACCash-Secured Put79% win · score 60.2

SELL 1× BAC 2026-08-21 $55 PUT for ~$0.46 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$5,454 per contract.

model 84%backtest 77% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
PGCash-Secured Put79% win · score 60.2

SELL 1× PG 2026-08-21 $135 PUT for ~$1.16 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$13,385 per contract.

model 84%backtest 77% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCash-Secured Put78% win · score 59.9

SELL 1× COST 2026-08-21 $860 PUT for ~$7.47 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$85,253 per contract.

model 81%backtest 77% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
XOMCash-Secured Put73% win · score 59.6

SELL 1× XOM 2026-08-21 $130 PUT for ~$1.98 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$12,801 per contract.

model 75%backtest 72% over 39 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCash-Secured Put72% win · score 59.1

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-08-21 $320 PUT for ~$5.10 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,490 per contract.

model 81%backtest 69% over 39 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCovered Call76% win · score 58.8

Own 100 shares of WMT; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $125 CALL for ~$1.09 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 74% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
JPMCash-Secured Put76% win · score 58.5

SELL 1× JPM 2026-08-21 $318.06 PUT for ~$2.97 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,509 per contract.

model 80%backtest 74% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 23%MODEL PRICE
HDCash-Secured Put74% win · score 58.5

SELL 1× HD 2026-08-21 $318.97 PUT for ~$3.89 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,508 per contract.

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 29%MODEL PRICE
QQQCovered Call76% win · score 57.3

Own 100 shares of QQQ; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $775 CALL for ~$5.07 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 74% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 20%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACovered Call72% win · score 57.3

Own 100 shares of NVDA; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $240 CALL for ~$2.68 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 69% over 39 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 39%LIVE QUOTE
IWMCash-Secured Put74% win · score 56.8

SELL 1× IWM 2026-08-21 $280 PUT for ~$2.56 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$27,744 per contract.

model 80%backtest 72% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
SPYCovered Call76% win · score 55.6

Own 100 shares of SPY; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $783 CALL for ~$3.07 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 74% over 39 trades~4%/yr yieldIV 11%LIVE QUOTE
DIACash-Secured Put74% win · score 55

SELL 1× DIA 2026-08-21 $505 PUT for ~$2.81 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$50,219 per contract.

model 81%backtest 72% over 39 trades~5%/yr yieldIV 15%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCash-Secured Put70% win · score 54.9

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-08-21 $290 PUT for ~$3.25 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$28,675 per contract.

model 81%backtest 67% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
DIACovered Call71% win · score 52.6

Own 100 shares of DIA; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $545 CALL for ~$2.54 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 69% over 39 trades~4%/yr yieldIV 12%LIVE QUOTE

Moderate (34)

Blended 55–70% — playable, but the edge is thinner.

AVGOPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75.4

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-08-21 $350 PUT / BUY 1× $330 PUT for ~$3.25 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,675 per spread.

model 81%backtest 69% over 39 trades~169%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 51%LIVE QUOTE
DIAPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75.3

SELL 1× DIA 2026-08-21 $505 PUT / BUY 1× $480 PUT for ~$1.79 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,321 per spread.

model 81%backtest 69% over 39 trades~67%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 15%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75.2

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-08-21 $220 PUT / BUY 1× $210 PUT for ~$1.75 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$825 per spread.

model 80%backtest 69% over 39 trades~184%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 43%LIVE QUOTE
METAPut Credit Spread72% win · score 75.1

SELL 1× META 2026-08-21 $585 PUT / BUY 1× $555 PUT for ~$6.12 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$2,388 per spread.

model 79%backtest 69% over 39 trades~223%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 52%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.8

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-08-21 $290 PUT / BUY 1× $275 PUT for ~$1.73 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,327 per spread.

model 81%backtest 67% over 39 trades~114%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
AMDPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.6

SELL 1× AMD 2026-08-21 $460 PUT / BUY 1× $440 PUT for ~$4.83 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,517 per spread.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~276%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 83%LIVE QUOTE
NVDAPut Credit Spread70% win · score 73.5

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-08-21 $190 PUT / BUY 1× $180 PUT for ~$1.65 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$835 per spread.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~172%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
AMDCash-Secured Put70% win · score 73.3

SELL 1× AMD 2026-08-21 $460 PUT for ~$19.98 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$44,003 per contract.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~40%/yr yieldIV 83%LIVE QUOTE
SPYPut Credit Spread68% win · score 72

SELL 1× SPY 2026-08-21 $723 PUT / BUY 1× $687 PUT for ~$2.84 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$3,316 per spread.

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~74%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 17%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTPut Credit Spread68% win · score 71.9

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-08-21 $345 PUT / BUY 1× $330 PUT for ~$2.75 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,225 per spread.

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~195%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
TSLAPut Credit Spread64% win · score 68.7

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-08-21 $365 PUT / BUY 1× $345 PUT for ~$3.65 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$1,635 per spread.

model 79%backtest 59% over 39 trades~194%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 47%LIVE QUOTE
QQQPut Credit Spread62% win · score 67.3

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-08-21 $675 PUT / BUY 1× $640 PUT for ~$3.85 net credit (42 DTE). Max risk ~$3,115 per spread.

model 81%backtest 56% over 39 trades~108%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
TSLACash-Secured Put68% win · score 59.6

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-08-21 $365 PUT for ~$8.32 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$35,668 per contract.

model 79%backtest 64% over 39 trades~20%/yr yieldIV 47%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACash-Secured Put70% win · score 59

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-08-21 $190 PUT for ~$3.58 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$18,643 per contract.

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCovered Call70% win · score 58

Own 100 shares of NFLX; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $85 CALL for ~$1.25 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 48%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCash-Secured Put68% win · score 57.6

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-08-21 $345 PUT for ~$6.63 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$33,838 per contract.

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCovered Call70% win · score 57

Own 100 shares of MSFT; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $440 CALL for ~$5.85 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 43%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNCovered Call70% win · score 56.4

Own 100 shares of AMZN; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $280 CALL for ~$3.48 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 39 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
AMDCovered Call60% win · score 55.4

Own 100 shares of AMD; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $740 CALL for ~$14.63 credit (42 DTE).

model 81%backtest 54% over 39 trades~23%/yr yieldIV 81%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCovered Call68% win · score 54.4

Own 100 shares of GOOGL; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $400 CALL for ~$4.80 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 38%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCovered Call65% win · score 52.8

Own 100 shares of UNH; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $470 CALL for ~$5.88 credit (42 DTE).

model 78%backtest 62% over 39 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCovered Call68% win · score 52.1

Own 100 shares of CVX; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $189.63 CALL for ~$1.62 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 26%MODEL PRICE
JPMCovered Call68% win · score 51.5

Own 100 shares of JPM; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $361.6 CALL for ~$2.76 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 23%MODEL PRICE
KOCovered Call68% win · score 51.3

Own 100 shares of KO; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $89.38 CALL for ~$0.65 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 64% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 21%MODEL PRICE
BACCovered Call69% win · score 51.1

Own 100 shares of BAC; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $65 CALL for ~$0.41 credit (42 DTE).

model 83%backtest 64% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
IWMCovered Call69% win · score 50.1

Own 100 shares of IWM; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $315 CALL for ~$1.46 credit (42 DTE).

model 83%backtest 64% over 39 trades~4%/yr yieldIV 17%LIVE QUOTE
XOMCovered Call64% win · score 49.8

Own 100 shares of XOM; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $150 CALL for ~$1.51 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 59% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCovered Call66% win · score 49.8

Own 100 shares of COST; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $980 CALL for ~$7.47 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 62% over 39 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
SPYCash-Secured Put66% win · score 49.1

SELL 1× SPY 2026-08-21 $723 PUT for ~$4.83 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$71,817 per contract.

model 80%backtest 62% over 39 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 17%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCovered Call64% win · score 48.7

Own 100 shares of AAPL; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $340 CALL for ~$2.81 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 59% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 25%LIVE QUOTE
QQQCash-Secured Put62% win · score 48.5

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-08-21 $675 PUT for ~$7.60 credit (42 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$66,740 per contract.

model 81%backtest 56% over 39 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
TSLACovered Call58% win · score 48.5

Own 100 shares of TSLA; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $475 CALL for ~$6.95 credit (42 DTE).

model 79%backtest 51% over 39 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 47%LIVE QUOTE
HDCovered Call60% win · score 46.4

Own 100 shares of HD; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $375.47 CALL for ~$3.55 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 54% over 39 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 29%MODEL PRICE
PGCovered Call56% win · score 42.4

Own 100 shares of PG; SELL 1× 2026-08-21 $159.63 CALL for ~$1.29 credit (42 DTE).

model 80%backtest 49% over 39 trades~8%/yr yieldIV 24%MODEL PRICE

Quotes are 15-minute-delayed (CBOE); model prices are Black-Scholes on realized volatility. Backtests replay the exact entry/exit rule on ~5 years of daily closes with strikes re-derived per entry — modeled fills, not broker fills. This is analytical opinion, not investment advice; options involve substantial risk of loss. Do your own due diligence.

Methodology — pricing, scoring, strategy mechanics

Pricing modes

  • Model — Black-Scholes premium estimated from 60-day historical volatility. Risk-free rate is implicit at zero. Greeks (delta) are computed from the same model.
  • Live chain — bid / ask / mid / IV / Greeks pulled from the option chain endpoint when available. Mid is used for yield math; risk-flag wide_spreadfires when bid/ask > 5%.
  • Hybrid — live chain when present; falls back to model. The status bar surfaces the actual source per request.

Strategy mechanics

  • Covered call — own 100 shares, sell a short call. Premium = income cap, strike = sell price ceiling. Breakeven = purchase price − premium received.
  • Cash-secured put — set aside strike × 100 cash, sell a short put. Breakeven = strike − premium. Capital required = strike × 100 per contract.
  • Wheel — sell CSPs until assigned, hold the stock, sell CCs until called away, then restart. Adjusted basis tracks premium received less stock losses.

Scoring (composite 0..100)

Each strategy decomposes into 6–8 weighted axes — premium quality, assignment fit, downside risk, liquidity, IV attractiveness, event risk, historical outcome, goal fit. The composite is multiplied by a risk-penalty product (each ≤ 1.0) so wide-spread, low-sample, model-only, or earnings- inside-DTE setups grade down even with a strong raw composite.

Confidence grading

  • n < 5 — Very low (do not rank as strong)
  • 5..10 — Low
  • 10..20 — Moderate
  • 20..50 — Good
  • ≥ 50 — High

Model-only premium and missing liquidity data each downgrade by one tier.

Decision labels

  • Conservative income — low delta, broad breakeven, low assignment risk.
  • Balanced income — 0.20–0.35 delta band, moderate premium + assignment.
  • Aggressive income — higher delta, higher premium, frequent assignment.
  • Exit strategy — high-delta call on shares you want to exit.
  • Assignment candidate — CSP at a strike you want to own.
  • Avoid chasing premium — composite low or risk penalties dominate.

Limitations & disclaimer

Liquidity, spread, IV rank, open interest, earnings date, and ex-dividend date are surfaced only when the upstream provider supplies them. Missing fields render explicit fallback labels ( Unrated, N/A) — never fake values. Backtests assume entries from a deterministic rule and exit at expiration; real-world slippage, commissions, and early-assignment outcomes are not modelled. This page surfaces analytical projections derived from public market data — not personalised investment advice. Options involve risk, including loss of principal and the risk of assignment. Do your own due diligence and manage risk according to your situation.

Metric glossary
Success rate
Share of historical trades that finished above the short strike at expiration (CC) / above the put strike (CSP).
Strict success
Share of trades that hit success without ever touching the assignment zone intraday.
Premium yield
Premium received / capital required, per trade. CC denominator = stock cost; CSP denominator = strike × 100.
Annualized return
Mean of each historical trade's annualized total return, (1 + trade return) ^ (365 / DTE) − 1. Because it averages per-trade annualized ratios, short high-percentage winners pull it above annualizing the average return (Jensen's inequality) — read it as an upper bound, not a sustainable yield. The honest headline annualizes the mean return instead; the inflated_annualized risk flag fires when this figure exceeds 50%.
Median return
Median total return (premium + stock P&L) across the historical sample.
P10 / P90
10th / 90th percentile total return — the tails of the historical distribution.
Assigned
Share of historical trades where the short option finished ITM and shares were transferred at the strike.
OTM
Out-of-the-money at expiration — the short option expired worthless.
Deep ITM
Short option finished significantly past the strike (e.g. > 2% past) — missed upside on CC, larger loss on CSP.
Breakeven
CC: stock cost − premium received. CSP: strike − premium received.
Max profit
CC if assigned: strike − stock cost + premium. CSP if expires OTM: premium received.
Downside exposure
Stock value declines reduce CC returns; CSP loses if stock falls below breakeven.
Assignment probability
Probability the short option finishes ITM at expiration (delta is a rough proxy).
Early assignment risk
ITM short calls are at risk of assignment before expiration when ex-dividend falls inside the trade and remaining extrinsic value is below the dividend.
Opportunity cost
Returns forgone vs simply holding the stock — capped upside on CC, time-locked cash on CSP.
Missed upside
Gain above the strike that CC trader did not capture due to the cap.
Downside capture
Share of stock-only downside the strategy retained, even after premium offset.
Stock-only return
Hypothetical return of just holding the stock over the same window — baseline comparison.
CC excess return vs stock
Covered-call return minus stock-only return. Positive when premium > foregone upside.
CSP excess return vs cash
Premium yield on collateral minus cash / T-bill return over the same window.
Wheel cycle P&L
Total premium + stock P&L from one CSP → assignment → CC → called-away rotation.
Days in stock
Calendar days the wheel held assigned shares during the cycle.
Capital efficiency
Annualised return on capital, accounting for days-in-cash vs days-in-stock.
IV rank
Where current implied volatility sits in its 52-week range (0..100).
IV percentile
Share of days in the past 252 trading days where IV was below today's level.
Bid/ask spread
(ask − bid) / mid. Wide spreads make modelled mid yields harder to execute.
Open interest
Outstanding contracts on the strike. Below 100 makes the option illiquid.
Option volume
Today's traded contracts on the strike. Below 50/day is illiquid.
Liquidity grade
A / B / C / D / Unrated derived from bid/ask spread, OI, and volume.
Low-N sample warning
Backtest with n < 20 → low confidence; n < 5 → very low (do not treat as repeatable).