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Options Income Lab · Identifier

Best Options Today

One ranked board across every income strategy we model. Each pick blends two independent witnesses — the option market's own delta-implied odds and a ~5-year backtest of the exact entry/exit rule on that symbol — and only earns the top tier when both agree. Back to the strategy hub ↩

Updated 13h ago · 72 picks across 24 symbols · 60 live-quoted · refreshed daily before the open

Earnings dates are unavailable from the free providers right now, so single-stock picks are capped at HIGH (never VERY HIGH) and carry a confirm-earnings note. Index ETFs (SPY/QQQ/IWM/DIA) are exempt — they have no earnings. Set FINNHUB_API_KEY to unlock earnings-aware tiering.

Pooled backtest across the universe: cash secured put 80% win / 0.13% avg per trade (1368 trades) · put credit spread 79% win / 2.30% avg per trade (1368 trades) · covered call 61% win / 1.25% avg per trade (1368 trades)

Very High Win Probability (0)

Every gate passed: live quote, liquid market, model ≥75%, blended ≥80%, backtest Wilson-low ≥60% with positive expectancy, and the earnings coast is known clear.

Nothing qualifies today — the gates are strict on purpose. The best candidates and the gate each one missed are listed under High below.

High Win Probability (48)

Blended win probability ≥70%. Usually one gate short of the top tier — check the risk notes for which.

COSTPut Credit Spread91% win · score 91.7

SELL 1× COST 2026-09-18 $920 PUT / BUY 1× $875 PUT for ~$4.53 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$4,048 per spread.

model 81%backtest 93% over 57 trades~163%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 21%LIVE QUOTE
WMTPut Credit Spread85% win · score 86.5

SELL 1× WMT 2026-09-18 $101 PUT / BUY 1× $96 PUT for ~$0.58 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$442 per spread.

model 79%backtest 86% over 57 trades~194%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOPut Credit Spread84% win · score 85.5

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-09-18 $325 PUT / BUY 1× $310 PUT for ~$2.62 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,238 per spread.

model 81%backtest 84% over 57 trades~309%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 51%LIVE QUOTE
UNHPut Credit Spread84% win · score 85.5

SELL 1× UNH 2026-09-18 $372.5 PUT / BUY 1× $355 PUT for ~$2.08 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,542 per spread.

model 81%backtest 84% over 57 trades~197%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
JPMPut Credit Spread84% win · score 85.4

SELL 1× JPM 2026-09-18 $342.73 PUT / BUY 1× $325.6 PUT for ~$1.96 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,518 per spread.

model 80%backtest 84% over 57 trades~188%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 21%MODEL PRICE
NVDAPut Credit Spread83% win · score 85.3

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-09-18 $192.5 PUT / BUY 1× $185 PUT for ~$1.27 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$623 per spread.

model 79%backtest 84% over 57 trades~299%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 44%LIVE QUOTE
AMDPut Credit Spread82% win · score 84.3

SELL 1× AMD 2026-09-18 $410 PUT / BUY 1× $390 PUT for ~$3.27 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,673 per spread.

model 81%backtest 82% over 57 trades~286%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLPut Credit Spread82% win · score 84.1

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-09-18 $330 PUT / BUY 1× $315 PUT for ~$2.12 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,288 per spread.

model 79%backtest 82% over 57 trades~240%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNPut Credit Spread81% win · score 83.2

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-09-18 $245 PUT / BUY 1× $235 PUT for ~$1.20 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$880 per spread.

model 81%backtest 81% over 57 trades~199%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 31%LIVE QUOTE
IWMPut Credit Spread79% win · score 81.9

SELL 1× IWM 2026-09-18 $284 PUT / BUY 1× $270 PUT for ~$1.18 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,283 per spread.

model 81%backtest 79% over 57 trades~134%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 21%LIVE QUOTE
BACPut Credit Spread79% win · score 81.9

SELL 1× BAC 2026-09-18 $59 PUT / BUY 1× $56 PUT for ~$0.29 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$271 per spread.

model 81%backtest 79% over 57 trades~156%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTPut Credit Spread79% win · score 81.8

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-09-18 $462.5 PUT / BUY 1× $440 PUT for ~$2.61 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,989 per spread.

model 80%backtest 79% over 57 trades~192%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
METAPut Credit Spread79% win · score 81.8

SELL 1× META 2026-09-18 $520 PUT / BUY 1× $495 PUT for ~$3.74 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$2,126 per spread.

model 80%backtest 79% over 57 trades~257%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXPut Credit Spread78% win · score 80.8

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-09-18 $75 PUT / BUY 1× $71 PUT for ~$0.46 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$354 per spread.

model 82%backtest 77% over 57 trades~192%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 33%LIVE QUOTE
QQQPut Credit Spread78% win · score 80.7

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-09-18 $675 PUT / BUY 1× $640 PUT for ~$3.03 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$3,197 per spread.

model 80%backtest 77% over 57 trades~138%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
DIAPut Credit Spread78% win · score 80.6

SELL 1× DIA 2026-09-18 $517 PUT / BUY 1× $490 PUT for ~$1.82 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$2,519 per spread.

model 80%backtest 77% over 57 trades~105%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 15%LIVE QUOTE
HDPut Credit Spread76% win · score 79.5

SELL 1× HD 2026-09-18 $318.72 PUT / BUY 1× $302.79 PUT for ~$2.20 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,374 per spread.

model 80%backtest 75% over 57 trades~233%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 28%MODEL PRICE
PGPut Credit Spread76% win · score 79.5

SELL 1× PG 2026-09-18 $139.46 PUT / BUY 1× $132.48 PUT for ~$0.81 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$616 per spread.

model 80%backtest 75% over 57 trades~192%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 22%MODEL PRICE
CVXPut Credit Spread76% win · score 79.4

SELL 1× CVX 2026-09-18 $192.5 PUT / BUY 1× $182.5 PUT for ~$1.25 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$875 per spread.

model 79%backtest 75% over 57 trades~209%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
SPYPut Credit Spread75% win · score 78.4

SELL 1× SPY 2026-09-18 $737 PUT / BUY 1× $700 PUT for ~$2.41 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$3,459 per spread.

model 80%backtest 74% over 57 trades~102%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
KOPut Credit Spread73% win · score 77.2

SELL 1× KO 2026-09-18 $87.48 PUT / BUY 1× $83.1 PUT for ~$0.55 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$382 per spread.

model 80%backtest 72% over 57 trades~211%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 25%MODEL PRICE
XOMPut Credit Spread73% win · score 76.9

SELL 1× XOM 2026-09-18 $155 PUT / BUY 1× $145 PUT for ~$1.25 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$875 per spread.

model 77%backtest 72% over 57 trades~209%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
AMDCash-Secured Put84% win · score 76.8

SELL 1× AMD 2026-09-18 $410 PUT for ~$7.17 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$40,283 per contract.

model 81%backtest 84% over 57 trades~26%/yr yieldIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCash-Secured Put84% win · score 75.8

SELL 1× AVGO 2026-09-18 $325 PUT for ~$5.35 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,965 per contract.

model 81%backtest 84% over 57 trades~24%/yr yieldIV 51%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACash-Secured Put82% win · score 73.8

SELL 1× NVDA 2026-09-18 $192.5 PUT for ~$3.05 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$18,945 per contract.

model 79%backtest 82% over 57 trades~24%/yr yieldIV 44%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCash-Secured Put90% win · score 71.1

SELL 1× COST 2026-09-18 $920 PUT for ~$5.65 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$91,435 per contract.

model 81%backtest 91% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 21%LIVE QUOTE
METACash-Secured Put82% win · score 70

SELL 1× META 2026-09-18 $520 PUT for ~$6.10 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$51,390 per contract.

model 80%backtest 82% over 57 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 35%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCash-Secured Put85% win · score 68.6

SELL 1× WMT 2026-09-18 $101 PUT for ~$0.78 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$10,022 per contract.

model 79%backtest 86% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCash-Secured Put84% win · score 68.5

SELL 1× UNH 2026-09-18 $372.5 PUT for ~$3.23 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$36,928 per contract.

model 81%backtest 84% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCash-Secured Put82% win · score 68.3

SELL 1× GOOGL 2026-09-18 $330 PUT for ~$3.30 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$32,670 per contract.

model 79%backtest 82% over 57 trades~15%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
TSLACash-Secured Put78% win · score 67.8

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-09-18 $325 PUT for ~$4.25 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$32,075 per contract.

model 81%backtest 77% over 57 trades~19%/yr yieldIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
JPMCash-Secured Put85% win · score 67.7

SELL 1× JPM 2026-09-18 $342.73 PUT for ~$2.27 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$34,047 per contract.

model 80%backtest 86% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 21%MODEL PRICE
AMZNCash-Secured Put81% win · score 66.5

SELL 1× AMZN 2026-09-18 $245 PUT for ~$2.22 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$24,278 per contract.

model 81%backtest 81% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 31%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCash-Secured Put80% win · score 65.9

SELL 1× CVX 2026-09-18 $192.5 PUT for ~$1.67 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$19,084 per contract.

model 79%backtest 81% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCash-Secured Put79% win · score 64.8

SELL 1× MSFT 2026-09-18 $462.5 PUT for ~$4.03 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$45,848 per contract.

model 80%backtest 79% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 27%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCash-Secured Put78% win · score 64.6

SELL 1× NFLX 2026-09-18 $75 PUT for ~$0.71 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$7,429 per contract.

model 82%backtest 77% over 57 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 33%LIVE QUOTE
BACCash-Secured Put81% win · score 64.3

SELL 1× BAC 2026-09-18 $59 PUT for ~$0.40 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$5,860 per contract.

model 81%backtest 81% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
HDCash-Secured Put76% win · score 62.9

SELL 1× HD 2026-09-18 $318.72 PUT for ~$2.90 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$31,583 per contract.

model 80%backtest 75% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 28%MODEL PRICE
IWMCash-Secured Put79% win · score 62.7

SELL 1× IWM 2026-09-18 $284 PUT for ~$1.79 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$28,221 per contract.

model 81%backtest 79% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 21%LIVE QUOTE
QQQCash-Secured Put78% win · score 62.3

SELL 1× QQQ 2026-09-18 $675 PUT for ~$4.83 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$67,017 per contract.

model 80%backtest 77% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 23%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCash-Secured Put77% win · score 61.6

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-09-18 $295 PUT for ~$2.24 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$29,277 per contract.

model 81%backtest 75% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
XOMCash-Secured Put73% win · score 61.6

SELL 1× XOM 2026-09-18 $155 PUT for ~$1.63 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$15,337 per contract.

model 77%backtest 72% over 57 trades~16%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
PGCash-Secured Put76% win · score 60.7

SELL 1× PG 2026-09-18 $139.46 PUT for ~$0.94 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$13,851 per contract.

model 80%backtest 75% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 22%MODEL PRICE
DIACash-Secured Put78% win · score 59.8

SELL 1× DIA 2026-09-18 $517 PUT for ~$2.37 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$51,463 per contract.

model 80%backtest 77% over 57 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 15%LIVE QUOTE
KOCash-Secured Put73% win · score 59.3

SELL 1× KO 2026-09-18 $87.48 PUT for ~$0.68 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$8,679 per contract.

model 80%backtest 72% over 57 trades~12%/yr yieldIV 25%MODEL PRICE
SPYCash-Secured Put75% win · score 57.8

SELL 1× SPY 2026-09-18 $737 PUT for ~$3.58 credit (25 DTE). Cash to secure: ~$73,342 per contract.

model 80%backtest 74% over 57 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 16%LIVE QUOTE
WMTCovered Call70% win · score 56

Own 100 shares of WMT; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $111 CALL for ~$0.72 credit (25 DTE).

model 78%backtest 68% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 22%LIVE QUOTE
SPYCovered Call72% win · score 53.8

Own 100 shares of SPY; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $784 CALL for ~$2.33 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 70% over 57 trades~5%/yr yieldIV 11%LIVE QUOTE

Moderate (24)

Blended 55–70% — playable, but the edge is thinner.

AAPLPut Credit Spread74% win · score 77.3

SELL 1× AAPL 2026-09-18 $295 PUT / BUY 1× $280 PUT for ~$1.54 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,346 per spread.

model 81%backtest 72% over 57 trades~167%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 26%LIVE QUOTE
TSLAPut Credit Spread74% win · score 77.2

SELL 1× TSLA 2026-09-18 $325 PUT / BUY 1× $310 PUT for ~$2.21 net credit (25 DTE). Max risk ~$1,280 per spread.

model 81%backtest 72% over 57 trades~252%/yr yield⚠ short-DTE inflatedIV 41%LIVE QUOTE
AVGOCovered Call67% win · score 61

Own 100 shares of AVGO; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $410 CALL for ~$5.28 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 65% over 57 trades~22%/yr yieldIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
NVDACovered Call69% win · score 59.1

Own 100 shares of NVDA; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $232.5 CALL for ~$2.35 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 67% over 57 trades~17%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
METACovered Call66% win · score 55.3

Own 100 shares of META; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $610 CALL for ~$5.38 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 63% over 57 trades~14%/yr yieldIV 36%LIVE QUOTE
AMZNCovered Call66% win · score 54.3

Own 100 shares of AMZN; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $280 CALL for ~$2.30 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 63% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 29%LIVE QUOTE
COSTCovered Call69% win · score 54.3

Own 100 shares of COST; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $1014.12 CALL for ~$5.92 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 67% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 22%MODEL PRICE
AMDCovered Call57% win · score 53.5

Own 100 shares of AMD; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $520 CALL for ~$6.92 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 53% over 57 trades~22%/yr yieldIV 53%LIVE QUOTE
HDCovered Call66% win · score 53.4

Own 100 shares of HD; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $355 CALL for ~$2.62 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 63% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 25%LIVE QUOTE
TSLACovered Call60% win · score 53.2

Own 100 shares of TSLA; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $390 CALL for ~$4.40 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 56% over 57 trades~18%/yr yieldIV 42%LIVE QUOTE
KOCovered Call66% win · score 52.8

Own 100 shares of KO; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $97.5 CALL for ~$0.64 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 63% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 25%MODEL PRICE
QQQCovered Call68% win · score 51.9

Own 100 shares of QQQ; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $737 CALL for ~$3.39 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 65% over 57 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 17%LIVE QUOTE
JPMCovered Call66% win · score 51.9

Own 100 shares of JPM; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $376.19 CALL for ~$2.15 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 63% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 21%MODEL PRICE
XOMCovered Call63% win · score 50.8

Own 100 shares of XOM; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $175 CALL for ~$1.17 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 60% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
CVXCovered Call63% win · score 50.6

Own 100 shares of CVX; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $215 CALL for ~$1.42 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 60% over 57 trades~10%/yr yieldIV 25%LIVE QUOTE
DIACovered Call68% win · score 50.4

Own 100 shares of DIA; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $548 CALL for ~$1.61 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 65% over 57 trades~4%/yr yieldIV 11%LIVE QUOTE
MSFTCovered Call63% win · score 50.1

Own 100 shares of MSFT; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $520 CALL for ~$3.13 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 60% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 25%LIVE QUOTE
UNHCovered Call62% win · score 49.9

Own 100 shares of UNH; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $425 CALL for ~$3.00 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 58% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
GOOGLCovered Call62% win · score 49.8

Own 100 shares of GOOGL; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $375 CALL for ~$2.57 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 58% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 28%LIVE QUOTE
AAPLCovered Call62% win · score 49.6

Own 100 shares of AAPL; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $330 CALL for ~$2.28 credit (25 DTE).

model 79%backtest 58% over 57 trades~11%/yr yieldIV 24%LIVE QUOTE
NFLXCovered Call59% win · score 49.1

Own 100 shares of NFLX; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $87 CALL for ~$0.73 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 54% over 57 trades~13%/yr yieldIV 32%LIVE QUOTE
BACCovered Call62% win · score 47.5

Own 100 shares of BAC; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $65 CALL for ~$0.30 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 58% over 57 trades~7%/yr yieldIV 19%LIVE QUOTE
PGCovered Call60% win · score 47.5

Own 100 shares of PG; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $153.39 CALL for ~$0.90 credit (25 DTE).

model 80%backtest 56% over 57 trades~9%/yr yieldIV 22%MODEL PRICE
IWMCovered Call62% win · score 46.9

Own 100 shares of IWM; SELL 1× 2026-09-18 $309 CALL for ~$1.25 credit (25 DTE).

model 81%backtest 58% over 57 trades~6%/yr yieldIV 16%LIVE QUOTE

Quotes are 15-minute-delayed (CBOE); model prices are Black-Scholes on realized volatility. Backtests replay the exact entry/exit rule on ~5 years of daily closes with strikes re-derived per entry — modeled fills, not broker fills. This is analytical opinion, not investment advice; options involve substantial risk of loss. Do your own due diligence.

Methodology — pricing, scoring, strategy mechanics

Pricing modes

  • Model — Black-Scholes premium estimated from 60-day historical volatility. Risk-free rate is implicit at zero. Greeks (delta) are computed from the same model.
  • Live chain — bid / ask / mid / IV / Greeks pulled from the option chain endpoint when available. Mid is used for yield math; risk-flag wide_spreadfires when bid/ask > 5%.
  • Hybrid — live chain when present; falls back to model. The status bar surfaces the actual source per request.

Strategy mechanics

  • Covered call — own 100 shares, sell a short call. Premium = income cap, strike = sell price ceiling. Breakeven = purchase price − premium received.
  • Cash-secured put — set aside strike × 100 cash, sell a short put. Breakeven = strike − premium. Capital required = strike × 100 per contract.
  • Wheel — sell CSPs until assigned, hold the stock, sell CCs until called away, then restart. Adjusted basis tracks premium received less stock losses.

Scoring (composite 0..100)

Each strategy decomposes into 6–8 weighted axes — premium quality, assignment fit, downside risk, liquidity, IV attractiveness, event risk, historical outcome, goal fit. The composite is multiplied by a risk-penalty product (each ≤ 1.0) so wide-spread, low-sample, model-only, or earnings- inside-DTE setups grade down even with a strong raw composite.

Confidence grading

  • n < 5 — Very low (do not rank as strong)
  • 5..10 — Low
  • 10..20 — Moderate
  • 20..50 — Good
  • ≥ 50 — High

Model-only premium and missing liquidity data each downgrade by one tier.

Decision labels

  • Conservative income — low delta, broad breakeven, low assignment risk.
  • Balanced income — 0.20–0.35 delta band, moderate premium + assignment.
  • Aggressive income — higher delta, higher premium, frequent assignment.
  • Exit strategy — high-delta call on shares you want to exit.
  • Assignment candidate — CSP at a strike you want to own.
  • Avoid chasing premium — composite low or risk penalties dominate.

Limitations & disclaimer

Liquidity, spread, IV rank, open interest, earnings date, and ex-dividend date are surfaced only when the upstream provider supplies them. Missing fields render explicit fallback labels ( Unrated, N/A) — never fake values. Backtests assume entries from a deterministic rule and exit at expiration; real-world slippage, commissions, and early-assignment outcomes are not modelled. This page surfaces analytical projections derived from public market data — not personalised investment advice. Options involve risk, including loss of principal and the risk of assignment. Do your own due diligence and manage risk according to your situation.

Metric glossary
Success rate
Share of historical trades that finished above the short strike at expiration (CC) / above the put strike (CSP).
Strict success
Share of trades that hit success without ever touching the assignment zone intraday.
Premium yield
Premium received / capital required, per trade. CC denominator = stock cost; CSP denominator = strike × 100.
Annualized return
Mean of each historical trade's annualized total return, (1 + trade return) ^ (365 / DTE) − 1. Because it averages per-trade annualized ratios, short high-percentage winners pull it above annualizing the average return (Jensen's inequality) — read it as an upper bound, not a sustainable yield. The honest headline annualizes the mean return instead; the inflated_annualized risk flag fires when this figure exceeds 50%.
Median return
Median total return (premium + stock P&L) across the historical sample.
P10 / P90
10th / 90th percentile total return — the tails of the historical distribution.
Assigned
Share of historical trades where the short option finished ITM and shares were transferred at the strike.
OTM
Out-of-the-money at expiration — the short option expired worthless.
Deep ITM
Short option finished significantly past the strike (e.g. > 2% past) — missed upside on CC, larger loss on CSP.
Breakeven
CC: stock cost − premium received. CSP: strike − premium received.
Max profit
CC if assigned: strike − stock cost + premium. CSP if expires OTM: premium received.
Downside exposure
Stock value declines reduce CC returns; CSP loses if stock falls below breakeven.
Assignment probability
Probability the short option finishes ITM at expiration (delta is a rough proxy).
Early assignment risk
ITM short calls are at risk of assignment before expiration when ex-dividend falls inside the trade and remaining extrinsic value is below the dividend.
Opportunity cost
Returns forgone vs simply holding the stock — capped upside on CC, time-locked cash on CSP.
Missed upside
Gain above the strike that CC trader did not capture due to the cap.
Downside capture
Share of stock-only downside the strategy retained, even after premium offset.
Stock-only return
Hypothetical return of just holding the stock over the same window — baseline comparison.
CC excess return vs stock
Covered-call return minus stock-only return. Positive when premium > foregone upside.
CSP excess return vs cash
Premium yield on collateral minus cash / T-bill return over the same window.
Wheel cycle P&L
Total premium + stock P&L from one CSP → assignment → CC → called-away rotation.
Days in stock
Calendar days the wheel held assigned shares during the cycle.
Capital efficiency
Annualised return on capital, accounting for days-in-cash vs days-in-stock.
IV rank
Where current implied volatility sits in its 52-week range (0..100).
IV percentile
Share of days in the past 252 trading days where IV was below today's level.
Bid/ask spread
(ask − bid) / mid. Wide spreads make modelled mid yields harder to execute.
Open interest
Outstanding contracts on the strike. Below 100 makes the option illiquid.
Option volume
Today's traded contracts on the strike. Below 50/day is illiquid.
Liquidity grade
A / B / C / D / Unrated derived from bid/ask spread, OI, and volume.
Low-N sample warning
Backtest with n < 20 → low confidence; n < 5 → very low (do not treat as repeatable).