Market — Regime Read
Top-down composite of sentiment, macro tape, breadth, and sector rotation. Read this before any breakout entry — the regime sets the base rate.
Reading the tape…
Regime
Risk-On
Score +67 · range −100 to +100
Regime read: Risk-On. 4 witnesses risk-on (Regime pulse, Direction flow, Confirmation momentum, Macro context); 1 witness risk-off (Sector rotation); defensives lead.
Witnesses What is a witness?
Each row is an independent read. Conviction grows when they agree; when they conflict, sit smaller or pass.
| Pillar | Score | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regime pulse | +100 | agrees bullish | 5 bull / 0 neutral / 0 bear / 0 transition · n=5 |
| Direction flow | +100 | agrees bullish | 5 long / 0 short / 0 avoid · n=5 |
| Confirmation momentum | +92 | agrees bullish | 4 confirmed · 1 triggered · 0 failed · 0 forming · n=5 |
| Trust-grade quality | -16 | neutral | 4A · 2B · 6C · 8D |
| Macro context | +55 | agrees bullish | VIX 15.0 — benign |
| Market breadth | +19 | neutral | 57% >50d · 63% >200d · 2H-1L |
| Sector rotation | -45 | agrees bearish | 1 Leading · 2 Improving · 0 Weakening · 8 Lagging |
Invalidation conditions
The regime flips when any of these conditions is met. Watch them the way an analyst watches stops — ignoring an invalidation is how regimes break unnoticed.
- Watching · VIX closes above 25Why: Volatility regime shift — fear takes the bid; risk-on premise breaksCurrent: VIX 15.03
- Watching · Universe breadth (% > 50d SMA) falls below 40%Why: Internals breakdown — rally turns narrow; rotation no longer enoughCurrent: 57% above 50d
- Watching · 20-day new lows exceed new highsWhy: Distribution day cluster — leaders rolling overCurrent: 2 highs vs 1 lows
- TRIPPED · More Lagging sectors than LeadingWhy: Defensive rotation dominates — late-cycle / risk-off internalsCurrent: 1 Leading vs 8 Lagging
- Watching · Scanner direction flow turns net-shortWhy: Bottom-up disagrees with top — pattern engine seeing more shorts than longsCurrent: direction pillar 100
Sector rotation
Leading
1
Improving
2
Weakening
0
Lagging
8
Top leaders (by composite RS rank)
| # | ETF | Sector | Quadrant | RS now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | Energy | Improving | 109.4 |
| 2 | XLU | Utilities | Lagging | 98.20 |
| 3 | XLK | Technology | Leading | 116.5 |
Analytical opinion derived from live scanner state and public market data. Not investment advice. Manage risk for your own situation.