Market — Regime Read
Top-down composite of sentiment, macro tape, breadth, and sector rotation. Read this before any breakout entry — the regime sets the base rate.
Reading the tape…
Regime
Neutral
Score +6 · range −100 to +100
Regime read: Neutral. 4 witnesses risk-on (Confirmation momentum, Macro context, Market breadth, Sector rotation); 2 witnesses risk-off (Regime pulse, Direction flow); defensives lead.
Witnesses What is a witness?
Each row is an independent read. Conviction grows when they agree; when they conflict, sit smaller or pass.
| Pillar | Score | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regime pulse | -37 | agrees bearish | 12 bull / 0 neutral / 28 bear |
| Direction flow | -44 | agrees bearish | 12 long / 0 short / 31 avoid |
| Confirmation momentum | +95 | agrees bullish | 38 confirmed · 5 triggered · 0 failed |
| Trust-grade quality | 0 | neutral | 0A · 0B · 0C · 0D |
| Macro context | +32 | agrees bullish | VIX 16.6 — benign |
| Market breadth | +49 | agrees bullish | 77% >50d · 60% >200d · 9H-0L |
| Sector rotation | +9 | agrees bullish | 1 Leading · 5 Improving · 1 Weakening · 4 Lagging |
Invalidation conditions
The regime flips when any of these conditions is met. Watch them the way an analyst watches stops — ignoring an invalidation is how regimes break unnoticed.
- Watching · VIX closes above 25Why: Volatility regime shift — fear takes the bid; risk-on premise breaksCurrent: VIX 16.59
- Watching · Universe breadth (% > 50d SMA) falls below 40%Why: Internals breakdown — rally turns narrow; rotation no longer enoughCurrent: 77% above 50d
- Watching · 20-day new lows exceed new highsWhy: Distribution day cluster — leaders rolling overCurrent: 9 highs vs 0 lows
- TRIPPED · More Lagging sectors than LeadingWhy: Defensive rotation dominates — late-cycle / risk-off internalsCurrent: 1 Leading vs 4 Lagging
- TRIPPED · Scanner direction flow turns net-shortWhy: Bottom-up disagrees with top — pattern engine seeing more shorts than longsCurrent: direction pillar -44
Sector rotation
Leading
1
Improving
5
Weakening
1
Lagging
4
Top leaders (by composite RS rank)
| # | ETF | Sector | Quadrant | RS now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | Energy | Weakening | 119.7 |
| 2 | XLB | Materials | Lagging | 104.3 |
| 3 | XLI | Industrials | Lagging | 102.7 |
Analytical opinion derived from live scanner state and public market data. Not investment advice. Manage risk for your own situation.