BRAND
Crocs / Jibbitz
▲ CROX
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-07
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: 4d
Social-Arb Scout
Trends before Wall Street digests them
Watches a curated tag library of brands, products, people, and cultural movements across consumer surfaces. The edge is EARLY detection of behavioral change — an entry fires on a fringe-first, accelerating signal on a needle-mover stock, before consensus forms. When the story reaches multi-source corroboration and mainstream press, the information-imbalance window has closed and the tag moves to Exit. Trade ideas, not advice — size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.
Tags tracked
Transparency lanes
Last data
The whole job, today
Today's only two decisions
Nothing to do right now. No buy or exit signal has cleared the gate. 8 in motion · 0 in discovery — next action: watch the supporting lanes below for acceleration, or run a fresh scan.
OperatorManual scanIdle
Background jobs — start one, then keep working. The page refreshes when the job finishes.
Fires HTTP + Browser + Exit-evaluator in parallel. Total ≈ slowest (~6 min).
~360s
Polls the 12 curated RSS feeds. ~5s.
~10s
Reddit + Bluesky + GDELT + HN + Wikipedia + articles. ~3–4 min.
~240s
Google Trends + X + Threads + YouTube via Playwright. Requires a logged-in profile. ~5–6 min.
~360s
Re-evaluates open theses; closes mainstreamed/saturated ones. ~10s.
~15s
Source signal health: all adapters upadapters healthy — quiet sources below are informational, not failures
33 of 52 sources quiet — adapter OK, no tag hits in the 7-day signal window (expand for detail)
bluesky:publicquietlast ok: 2m agobrowser:linkedinquietlast ok: 5.7h agobrowser:threadsquietlast ok: 5.7h agobrowser:tiktokquietlast ok: 5.7h agoreddit:r/AsianBeautyquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/FastFoodquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/FoodLosAngelesquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/MakeupAddictionquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/PS5quietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/RunningShoeGeeksquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/Wallstreetbetsnewquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/applefansquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/buildapcquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/coffeequietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/femalefashionadvicequietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/fragrancequietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/gamingquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/intermittentfastingquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/investingquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/ketoquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/lululemonquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/malefashionadvicequietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/optionsquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/popmartquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/runningquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/skincareaddictionquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/skincareexchangequietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/sneakersquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/starbucksquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/stocksquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/teaquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/veganquietlast ok: 2m agoreddit:r/wallstreetbetsquietlast ok: 2m ago
Source freshnessfreshest fetch 2m ago · 7 sources >4h old
google-trends5.7h agolinkedin5.7h agothreads5.7h agotiktok5.7h agotwitch5.7h agox5.7h agoyoutube5.7h agor/investing2m agor/stocks2m agor/wallstreetbets2m agor/AsianBeauty2m agor/FastFood2m agor/FoodLosAngeles2m agor/MakeupAddiction2m agor/PS52m agor/RunningShoeGeeks2m agor/applefans2m agor/buildapc2m agor/coffee2m agor/femalefashionadvice2m agor/fragrance2m agor/gaming2m agor/intermittentfasting2m agor/keto2m agor/lululemon2m agor/malefashionadvice2m agor/popmart2m agor/running2m agor/skincareaddiction2m agor/sneakers2m agor/starbucks2m agor/tea2m agor/vegan2m agoarticles:9to5mac2m agoarticles:daily-dot2m agoarticles:deadline2m agoarticles:dexerto2m agoarticles:feed-me2m agoarticles:glossy2m agoarticles:highsnobiety2m agoarticles:hypebeast2m agoarticles:modern-retail2m agoarticles:techcrunch2m agoarticles:the-cool-down2m agoarticles:variety2m agobluesky:public2m agogdelt:doc2m agohackernews:algolia2m agor/Wallstreetbetsnew2m agor/options2m agor/skincareexchange2m agowikipedia:pageviews2m ago
Ladder gates
The two constants that decide which lane a thesis lands in — sourced from the scoring code, not per-card prose.
Entry (BUY)imbalanceScore ≥ 0.45
Fringe-first, accelerating signal on a needle-mover — before consensus forms.
Exit (mainstreamed)mainstreamingScore ≥ 0.60
Multi-source corroboration + mainstream press — the imbalance window has closed.
Entry window — tradeable BUY theses
Promotion bucket, NOT a coverage state. Fringe-first, accelerating signals on needle-mover stocks that cleared the gate, before the trend is broadly corroborated. The BUY side of the imbalance — these are sized, actionable ideas.
Honest empty lane
No thesis is in the Entry window as of 2026-07-11.
This is the BUY side of the imbalance — fringe-first, accelerating signals on needle-mover stocks that have cleared the entry gate. The lane fills the moment a brewing or discovery candidate's imbalance score clears the threshold.
Next action: watch the Brewing and Discovery lanes below for acceleration, or run a fresh scan to pull new chatter.
Exit window — mainstreamed
Multi-source corroboration + mainstream cascade: the information-imbalance window has closed. Scale out — do NOT initiate here.
Honest empty lane
No position has mainstreamed as of 2026-07-11 — nothing to exit.
A tag lands here once it reaches multi-source corroboration and mainstream press, meaning the information-imbalance window has closed. Scale out when a position appears here; never initiate a new entry in this lane.
Next action: hold current Entry-window positions until a story reaches mainstream cascade.
Supporting signal & transparency
Context behind the two decisions above — coverage states, brewing signal, and full audit lanes. Nothing below here is a trade.
Brewing — one layer active, watching for corroboration· 5 hidden, click to expand
Either primary chatter OR secondary press is hot, but not both. Wait for the second layer before treating as an entry window. (S-435 fix: previously these were mislabelled as imbalance.)
PRODUCT
Labubu (Pop Mart)
▲ PMRTY
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
MOVEMENT
Chipotle portion-size complaints
▼ CMG
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-11
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
PRODUCT
Stanley Tumbler
▼ YETI
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
PRODUCT
Lululemon Align leggings
▲ LULU
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
Mainstreaming — tertiary lit up· 3 hidden, click to expand
Mainstream press now covers it. Edge has compressed — fade or skip new entries.
PERSON
Taylor Swift tour / merch
▲ LYV
SATURATEDCascade spread−1.0
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-05
Secondary lag: —Tertiary lag: 2d
BRAND
Nike — Jordan / Dunk drops
▲ NKE
SATURATEDCascade spread−1.0
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-10
Secondary lag: —Tertiary lag: 7d
BRAND
Marriott / travel demand
▲ MAR
SATURATEDCascade spread−1.0
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
tertiary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-06
Discovery — lightly-covered tickers, signal accelerating
TIER_3/TIER_4 tickers below the hard gate (z 1.2–1.9σ) but velocity ≥ 0.15σ/day. The system's pre-signal early-warning layer — weeks ahead of institutional research.
Honest empty lane
No TIER_3/TIER_4 candidate is above the discovery threshold (z 1.2–1.9σ, velocity ≥ 0.15σ/day) as of 2026-07-11.
Pipeline healthy. 52/52 sources fresh · last good fetch 2m ago. This is a real empty result, not a stalled scan.
Next action: run a fresh scan, or widen the tag library — the lane fills the moment a lightly-covered ticker starts accelerating.
Non-material — not a needle-mover· 4 hidden, click to expand
The trend can't plausibly move this company's bottom line (mega-cap, <3% revenue exposure, or no US-listed exposure e.g. a London .L listing). Kept visible for transparency; never tradable — never an entry window.
MOVEMENT
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss
▲ NVO▲ LLY
NON-MATERIALCascade spread−0.5
non-material: only 2.0% of NVO revenue exposed (heuristic default, floor 3%)
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
● ACTIVE
2 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-06
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: 3d
BRAND
OpenAI / ChatGPT
▲ MSFT
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+0.5
non-material: only 2.0% of MSFT revenue exposed (curated estimate, floor 3%)
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
2 srcs today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-06
Secondary lag: —Tertiary lag: 3d
BRAND
Dr. Martens (declining buzz)
▼ DOCS.L
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+0.5
non-material: DOCS.L is not US-listed (foreign exchange) — no clean US-listed exposure
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-04
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 1dTertiary lag: —
BRAND
Anthropic / Claude
▲ GOOGL
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+0.5
non-material: only 1.0% of GOOGL revenue exposed (curated estimate, floor 3%)
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-07-03
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-07-08
Secondary lag: —Tertiary lag: 5d
Watchlist· 10 hidden, click to expand
Detected but below validation gates — could still mature. Heat-ordered: warmer entries (mention surge × source corroboration) sit closest to promotion.
BRAND
▲ MSTR
21.7× base
z n/a
BRAND
▲ CVNA
21.1× base
z n/a
BRAND
▲ RCL
11.0× base
z n/a
BRAND
▲ CCL
11.0× base
z n/a
BRAND
▲ SBUX
20.3× base
z -0.33
MOVEMENT
▲ TJX
20.7× base
z n/a
BRAND
▲ SPOT
20.2× base
z -0.48
BRAND
▲ MCD
20.4× base
z -0.50
BRAND
▲ MARA
10.5× base
z -0.50
BRAND
▲ SHOP
20.6× base
z n/a
Tag library· 83 tags, click to expand
83 tags currently tracked across 4 categories. The library is data, not code — extend via lib/socialArb/tagLibrary.ts.
Stanley TumblerLululemon Align leggingsGLP-1 / Ozempic weight-lossLabubu (Pop Mart)Dr. Martens (declining buzz)Crocs / JibbitzChipotle portion-size complaintsSonos (post-app sentiment)Duolingo (streak / Duo memes)PlayStation 5 Pro / new consoleNvidia Blackwell / B100 / B200Taylor Swift tour / merchFormula 1 fandom (Drive to Survive)Sweetgreen menu / chicken sandwichShake ShackCava MediterraneanWingstopDutch Bros CoffeeOn Running (Cloud)Hoka One OneBirkenstocke.l.f. BeautyAbercrombie & Fitch (turnaround)DoorDashUber ridesPalantir / AIPCoinbaseRobinhoodCarvanaChewy petSpotify Wrapped / audiobooksAirbnb (host pushback)Chipotle (positive menu launches)Klaviyo (e-commerce email)Reddit Inc.Stanley tumbler peak / declineLululemon mens lineAlo Yoga (private competitor)Anthropic / ClaudeOpenAI / ChatGPTStarbucksMcDonald'sChipotle — menu & comps buzzNike — Jordan / Dunk dropsRhode skincare (Hailey Bieber)Summer FridaysDrunk ElephantSpotify — subscriber momentumTesla FSD / CybertruckTesla brand decline / boycottMeta Quest VRApple Vision ProMARA / Bitcoin minersMicroStrategy / SaylorRokuMarriott / travel demandCarnival / cruise demandRoyal CaribbeanNorwegian CruiseShopifyEtsyPeloton (turnaround attempts)GameStop / meme cycleAMC Theatres / popcornJohn DeereAmazon PrimeTJ Maxx / off-priceCostcoTrader Joe'sPop Mart — blind-box resale hypePoppi prebiotic sodaTHC / cannabis beverages (Brez, Cann)Aperitivo / spritz drinking cultureFunko Pop resale hypeRoblox UGC creator economyPickleball / JOOLA gearCreatine mainstream breakoutSleep optimization (magnesium, HRV)Gen Z financial literacy / investingDigital nomad / remote work housingVan life / overlandingPrepping / survival gear surgeDupes culture (luxury alternatives)