MarketBotsLabTransparency
Social-Arb Scout

Trends before Wall Street digests them

Watches a curated tag library of brands, products, people, and cultural movements across public Reddit feeds. Flags a trend only when mention volume runs ≥ 2σ above its 14-day baseline on at least two corroborating sources, with the conversation persisting more than 24 hours. Trade ideas, not advice — size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Tags tracked
13
Entry window
0
Validated trends
0
Active theses
10
Last data
2026-05-26

Manual scan

Background jobs — start one, then keep working. The page refreshes when the job finishes.

Fires HTTP + Browser + Exit-evaluator in parallel. Total ≈ slowest (~6 min).
~360s
Polls the 12 curated RSS feeds. ~5s.
~10s
Reddit + Bluesky + GDELT + HN + Wikipedia + articles. ~3–4 min.
~240s
Google Trends + X + Threads + YouTube via Playwright. Requires a logged-in profile. ~5–6 min.
~360s
Re-evaluates open theses; closes mainstreamed/saturated ones. ~10s.
~15s
Discovery queue: No pending discoveries

Active theses

ATR-sized entry/stop/target with explicit invalidators

Crocs / Jibbitz

▲ LONG CROX

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Crocs / Jibbitz mentions are 125.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 2 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). CROX benefits this trend — Direct brand mention proxy for Crocs Inc. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$110.44
Stop
$102.60
Target
$126.13
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$3.92
Size
$14,026
Shares
127
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips negative (< −0.15) while mention volume stays elevated — the conversation has turned against CROX.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
z = 125.00 · 125 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 2 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25
Dr. Martens (declining buzz)

▼ SHORT DOCS.L

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Dr. Martens (declining buzz) mentions are 63.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 2 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). DOCS.L is at risk from this trend — Dr. Martens plc — falling brand mention coincides with US wholesale weakness. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$69.60
Stop
$77.46
Target
$53.88
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$3.93
Size
$8,839
Shares
127
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips positive (> 0.15) while mentions stay elevated — the brand response is recovering.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
z = 63.00 · 63 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 2 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25
Stanley Tumbler

▼ SHORT YETI

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Stanley Tumbler mentions are 47.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 2 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (19%). YETI is at risk from this trend — Stanley's viral Quencher cycle pulls share from YETI's Rambler line in the personal-drinkware category. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$45.22
Stop
$49.93
Target
$35.79
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$2.36
Size
$9,587
Shares
212
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips positive (> 0.15) while mentions stay elevated — the brand response is recovering.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
z = 47.00 · 47 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 2 sources · sentiment 19% · created 2026-05-25
Labubu (Pop Mart)

▲ LONG PMRTY

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Labubu (Pop Mart) mentions are 34.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 3 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (-18%). PMRTY benefits this trend — Pop Mart ADR — Labubu is the flagship blind-box franchise. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$19.03
Stop
$17.29
Target
$22.53
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$0.87
Size
$10,888
Shares
572
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (reddit:r/popmart) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips negative (< −0.15) while mention volume stays elevated — the conversation has turned against PMRTY.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (5)
z = 34.00 · 34 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 3 sources · sentiment -18% · created 2026-05-25
Lululemon Align leggings

▲ LONG LULU

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Lululemon Align leggings mentions are 30.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 2 corroborating sources, with negative sentiment (-27%). LULU benefits this trend — Direct revenue driver — Align is LULU's largest single SKU family. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$127.18
Stop
$119.47
Target
$142.61
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$3.86
Size
$16,406
Shares
129
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips negative (< −0.15) while mention volume stays elevated — the conversation has turned against LULU.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (3)
z = 30.00 · 30 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 2 sources · sentiment -27% · created 2026-05-25
Lululemon Align leggings

▼ SHORT GAP

MEDIUM CONVICTION

Lululemon Align leggings mentions are 30.0σ above their 0.0/day baseline across 2 corroborating sources, with negative sentiment (-27%). GAP is at risk from this trend — Athleta share-loss in the same price tier. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$23.39
Stop
$25.19
Target
$19.78
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$0.90
Size
$12,958
Shares
554
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips positive (> 0.15) while mentions stay elevated — the brand response is recovering.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (3)
z = 30.00 · 30 mentions today vs 0.0/day baseline · 2 sources · sentiment -27% · created 2026-05-25
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss

▲ LONG NVO

LOW CONVICTION

GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss mentions are -1.5σ above their 1288.0/day baseline across 3 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). NVO benefits this trend — Novo Nordisk — Ozempic / Wegovy manufacturer. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$44.96
Stop
$42.53
Target
$49.83
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$1.22
Size
$18,479
Shares
411
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips negative (< −0.15) while mention volume stays elevated — the conversation has turned against NVO.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (6)
z = -1.55 · 291 mentions today vs 1288.0/day baseline · 3 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss

▲ LONG LLY

LOW CONVICTION

GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss mentions are -1.5σ above their 1288.0/day baseline across 3 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). LLY benefits this trend — Eli Lilly — Mounjaro / Zepbound manufacturer. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$1,065
Stop
$1,007
Target
$1,181
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$28.91
Size
$18,105
Shares
17
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips negative (< −0.15) while mention volume stays elevated — the conversation has turned against LLY.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (6)
z = -1.55 · 291 mentions today vs 1288.0/day baseline · 3 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss

▼ SHORT WW

LOW CONVICTION

GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss mentions are -1.5σ above their 1288.0/day baseline across 3 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). WW is at risk from this trend — WeightWatchers volume cannibalisation. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$12.79
Stop
$15.67
Target
$7.03
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$1.44
Size
$4,438
Shares
347
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips positive (> 0.15) while mentions stay elevated — the brand response is recovering.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (6)
z = -1.55 · 291 mentions today vs 1288.0/day baseline · 3 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss

▼ SHORT PEP

LOW CONVICTION

GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss mentions are -1.5σ above their 1288.0/day baseline across 3 corroborating sources, with mixed sentiment (0%). PEP is at risk from this trend — Snack-volume drag from appetite suppression. Trade idea, not advice; size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.

Entry
$150.57
Stop
$156.76
Target
$138.18
R-mult
2.00R
ATR(14)
$3.10
Size
$24,242
Shares
161
Horizon
21d
Invalidators (4)
  • Mention z-score reverts below 1.0 on the dominant source (browser:google-trends) for two consecutive days.
  • Net sentiment flips positive (> 0.15) while mentions stay elevated — the brand response is recovering.
  • Mainstream-media coverage (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) picks up the story — the information-imbalance window has closed.
  • Earnings or guidance release confirms the trend has already been digested — exit before the next print.
Evidence (6)
z = -1.55 · 291 mentions today vs 1288.0/day baseline · 3 sources · sentiment 0% · created 2026-05-25

Watchlist

Detected but below validation gates — could still mature

PRODUCT

Nvidia Blackwell / B100 / B200

WATCHINGz = -1.00
Today
0
Baseline/day
1.0
Sources
0/1
Sentiment
mixed
NVDA
MOVEMENT

Formula 1 fandom (Drive to Survive)

WATCHINGz = -1.00
Today
0
Baseline/day
1.0
Sources
0/1
Sentiment
mixed
FWONK
PRODUCT

PlayStation 5 Pro / new console

WATCHINGz = -1.00
Today
0
Baseline/day
1.0
Sources
0/1
Sentiment
mixed
SONY
PERSON

Taylor Swift tour / merch

WATCHINGz = -2.00
Today
0
Baseline/day
2817.0
Sources
0/5
Sentiment
mixed
LYV
MOVEMENT

Chipotle portion-size complaints

WATCHINGz = -2.00
Today
0
Baseline/day
4.0
Sources
0/1
Sentiment
mixed
CMG

Tag library

13 tags currently tracked across 4 categories. The library is data, not code — extend via lib/socialArb/tagLibrary.ts.

Stanley TumblerLululemon Align leggingsGLP-1 / Ozempic weight-lossLabubu (Pop Mart)Dr. Martens (declining buzz)Crocs / JibbitzChipotle portion-size complaintsSonos (post-app sentiment)Duolingo (streak / Duo memes)PlayStation 5 Pro / new consoleNvidia Blackwell / B100 / B200Taylor Swift tour / merchFormula 1 fandom (Drive to Survive)