Watches a curated tag library of brands, products, people, and cultural movements across consumer surfaces. The edge is EARLY detection of behavioral change — an entry fires on a fringe-first, accelerating signal on a needle-mover stock, before consensus forms. When the story reaches multi-source corroboration and mainstream press, the information-imbalance window has closed and the tag moves to Exit. Trade ideas, not advice — size from your social-arb risk-capital bucket only.
Tags tracked
83
Imbalance band
1
Transparency lanes
3
Last data
2026-08-25
The whole job, today
Today's only two decisions
0 buy · 0 exit
Nothing to do right now. No buy or exit signal has cleared the gate. 6 in motion · 0 in discovery — next action: watch the supporting lanes below for acceleration, or run a fresh scan.
OperatorManual scanIdle
Background jobs — start one, then keep working. The page refreshes when the job finishes.
Fires HTTP + Browser + Exit-evaluator in parallel. Total ≈ slowest (~6 min).
~360s
Polls the 12 curated RSS feeds. ~5s.
~10s
Reddit + Bluesky + GDELT + HN + Wikipedia + articles. ~3–4 min.
~240s
Google Trends + X + Threads + YouTube via Playwright. Requires a logged-in profile. ~5–6 min.
~360s
Re-evaluates open theses; closes mainstreamed/saturated ones. ~10s.
The two constants that decide which lane a thesis lands in — sourced from the scoring code, not per-card prose.
Entry (BUY)imbalanceScore ≥ 0.45
Fringe-first, accelerating signal on a needle-mover — before consensus forms.
Exit (mainstreamed)mainstreamingScore ≥ 0.60
Multi-source corroboration + mainstream press — the imbalance window has closed.
Entry window — tradeable BUY theses
Promotion bucket, NOT a coverage state. Fringe-first, accelerating signals on needle-mover stocks that cleared the gate, before the trend is broadly corroborated. The BUY side of the imbalance — these are sized, actionable ideas.
Honest empty lane
No thesis is in the Entry window as of 2026-08-25.
This is the BUY side of the imbalance — fringe-first, accelerating signals on needle-mover stocks that have cleared the entry gate. Cascade-imbalance multi-surface heat also ranks in High-conviction tradable packs above.
Next action: watch the Brewing and Discovery lanes below for acceleration, or run a fresh scan to pull new chatter.
Exit window — mainstreamed
Multi-source corroboration + mainstream cascade: the information-imbalance window has closed. Scale out — do NOT initiate here.
Honest empty lane
No position has mainstreamed as of 2026-08-25 — nothing to exit.
A tag lands here once it reaches multi-source corroboration and mainstream press, meaning the information-imbalance window has closed. Scale out when a position appears here; never initiate a new entry in this lane.
Next action: hold current Entry-window positions until a story reaches mainstream cascade.
Supporting signal & transparency
Context behind the two decisions above — coverage states, brewing signal, and full audit lanes. Nothing below here is a trade.
News cascade — imbalance band· 1 hidden, click to expand
Coverage state, NOT a trade. Primary chatter + secondary culture-press are active while tertiary financial media stays quiet — the Camillo information-imbalance window. Cards here describe how a story is spreading; they only become tradeable once they surface in the Entry window lane above.
How to read this: cards here carry a ≋hatched-rail marker — cascade state, how far a story has spread across source layers (a signal, not a trade). The solid-rail promotion-bucket cards — an actionable thesis — live in the Entry window lane further down, not here. Rule of thumb: solid rail = act, hatched rail = watch.
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
BRAND
Crocs / Jibbitz
▲ CROX
IMBALANCE BANDCascade spread+1.0
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —← imbalance window open
Brewing — one layer active, watching for corroboration· 5 hidden, click to expand
Either primary chatter OR secondary press is hot, but not both. Wait for the second layer before treating as an entry window. (S-435 fix: previously these were mislabelled as imbalance.)
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
PRODUCT
Stanley Tumbler
▼ YETI
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
PRODUCT
Lululemon Align leggings
▲ LULU
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
BRAND
Nike — Jordan / Dunk drops
▲ NKE
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
PRODUCT
Labubu (Pop Mart)
▲ PMRTY
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
○ quiet
0 srcs today · since 2026-08-22
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 5dTertiary lag: —
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
BRAND
Hoka One One
▲ DECK
BREWINGCascade spread+0.5
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Discovery — lightly-covered tickers, signal accelerating
TIER_3/TIER_4 tickers below the hard gate (z 1.2–1.9σ) but velocity ≥ 0.15σ/day. The system's pre-signal early-warning layer — weeks ahead of institutional research.
Honest empty lane
No TIER_3/TIER_4 candidate is above the discovery threshold (z 1.2–1.9σ, velocity ≥ 0.15σ/day) as of 2026-08-25.
Pipeline healthy. 24/25 sources fresh · last good fetch 8m ago. This is a real empty result, not a stalled scan.
Most recent discovery-grade signal · context only, not live
▲ LONG VSTO — Pickleball / JOOLA gear (TIER_3)
z-score n/avelocity +0.36σ/day0 sources
Observed 2026-08-11 · 14 days ago — historical context from the trailing 14-day window, not a current entry candidate.
Next action: run a fresh scan, or widen the tag library — the lane fills the moment a lightly-covered ticker starts accelerating.
Non-material — not a needle-mover· 3 hidden, click to expand
The trend can't plausibly move this company's bottom line (mega-cap, <3% revenue exposure, or no US-listed exposure e.g. a London .L listing). Kept visible for transparency; never tradable — never an entry window.
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
MOVEMENT
GLP-1 / Ozempic weight-loss
▲ NVO▲ LLY
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+1.0
non-material: only 2.0% of NVO revenue exposed (heuristic default, floor 3%)
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
● ACTIVE
2 srcs today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 0dTertiary lag: —
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
BRAND
Dr. Martens (declining buzz)
▼ DOCS.L
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+1.0
non-material: DOCS.L is not US-listed (foreign exchange) — no clean US-listed exposure
primary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-17
secondary
● ACTIVE
1 src today · since 2026-08-19
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Secondary lag: 2dTertiary lag: —
≋Coverage state · signal, not a trade
BRAND
OpenAI / ChatGPT
▲ MSFT
NON-MATERIALCascade spread+0.5
non-material: only 2.0% of MSFT revenue exposed (curated estimate, floor 3%)
primary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
secondary
● ACTIVE
2 srcs today · since 2026-08-17
tertiary
○ quiet
0 srcs today
Watchlist· 2 hidden, click to expand
Detected but below validation gates — could still mature. Heat-ordered: warmer entries (mention surge × source corroboration) sit closest to promotion.
Cooler watchlist — below building heatTodayHeatz
PERSONTaylor Swift tour / merch
▲ LYV
281.2× base
heat
z 2.44
BRANDPop Mart — blind-box resale hype
▲ PMRTY
20.9× base
heat
z -0.35
Tag library· 83 tags, click to expand
83 tags currently tracked across 4 categories. The library is data, not code — extend via lib/socialArb/tagLibrary.ts.