Sector Money Flow

Where institutional capital appears to be rotating across the 11 SPDR sectors. The rotation graph plots each sector by its 10-week relative strength against SPY — leading + improving quadrants are the bullish hunting grounds. The flow arrows are inferred from short-window return × dollar volume — a proxy, not actual cash-flow data.

Risk-On

+65Regime score

Regime read: Risk-On. 5 witnesses risk-on (Regime pulse, Direction flow, Confirmation momentum, Macro context, Sector rotation); offensive sectors lead.View full read →

Regime label = blended top-down sentiment + breadth + sectors read. Use as macro context for the rotation read below.

Macro confirmation unavailable — FRED_API_KEY env var not set.

Sector Rotation — 8-week trails · 4wk projection overlay

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Sector projection — 4-week look-ahead

Linear extrapolation of recent trail. Descriptive, not predictive — confidence falls when the trail wobbles.

Transitions ahead

Bullish transitions

Bearish transitions

Sector	Current → Projected	Velocity (Δrs / Δmom per wk)	Confidence
XLRE	Improving→Leading	+0.92 / +1.86	74%
XLF	Weakening→Leading	+0.21 / +1.13	68%
XLY	Lagging→Weakening	+0.29 / −0.20	20%

Linear projection — assumes current trail momentum continues. Real markets often mean-revert or accelerate.

Industry sub-sectors

Curated industry ETFs grouped by SPDR parent. Tile color = current quadrant; size = RS strength deviation from 100.

XLK · Technology(3)

CIBRLagging

Cybersecurity

R: 97.5·M: 96.4

IGVWeakening

Software

R: 103.3·M: 98.7

SMHLagging

Semiconductors

R: 91.9·M: 99.2

XLF · Financials(2)

KBELagging

Banks

R: 95.9·M: 99.1

KRELagging

Regional Banks

R: 95.5·M: 99.1

XLE · Energy(2)

OIHLeading

Oil Services

R: 101.5·M: 101.1

XOPLeading

Oil & Gas E&P

R: 105.5·M: 102.0

XLY · Discretionary(2)

XHBLagging

Homebuilders

R: 94.3·M: 99.8

XRTImproving

Retail

R: 96.9·M: 100.6

XLV · Healthcare(2)

IBBLeading

Biotech

R: 105.1·M: 101.7

IHILeading

Medical Devices

R: 102.3·M: 100.0

XLI · Industrials(2)

ITALagging

Aerospace & Defense

R: 93.7·M: 96.9

IYTImproving

Transportation

R: 96.1·M: 100.6

XLB · Materials(1)

GDXLeading

Gold Miners

R: 120.3·M: 104.9

Sub-sector ETF tracking — 6 months of daily bars, weekly resampled. SMH/IGV/SOXX/etc. are the institutional proxies for these slices.

Sub-sector projection — 4-week look-ahead

Linear extrapolation of each industry ETF's recent trail. Confidence falls when the trail wobbles.

Leading

Improving

Weakening

Lagging

XLF2 sub-sectors

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
KRERegional Banks	Lagging→Improving	−0.61 / +0.00	+0.87 / +0.00	80%
KBEBanks	Lagging→Improving	−0.62 / +0.00	+0.81 / +0.00	76%

XLY1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
XHBHomebuilders	Lagging→Improving	−0.58 / +0.00	+0.35 / +0.00	86%

XLV1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
IHIMedical Devices	Leading→Weakening	+0.57 / +0.00	−0.25 / +0.00	61%

XLB1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
GDXGold Miners	Leading→Weakening	+4.85 / +0.00	−2.09 / +0.00	80%

Linear projection — assumes current trail momentum continues. Real markets often mean-revert or accelerate.

Bayesian transition prior — aggregate

Observed historical quadrant transitions across the 11 sectors over their 8-week trails (77 observations, Laplace-smoothed). Use as a prior to dampen noisy kinematic projections.

From \ To	leading	improving	weakening	lagging
leading	53%	7%	7%	33%
improving	23%	38%	8%	31%
weakening	5%	5%	68%	21%
lagging	17%	13%	4%	65%

Inferred sector rotation — 5-day proxy. Not actual fund flows.

Bullish sectors — Leading + Improving

7 of 11 sectors are in constructive quadrants. Composite score = RS-Ratio + RS-Momentum.

#	Sector	Quadrant	RS-Ratio	RS-Mom	Composite
1	XLE · Energy	LEADING	105.97	100.94	206.91
2	XLV · Healthcare	LEADING	103.77	100.68	204.45
3	XLP · Staples	LEADING	100.66	101.35	202.01
4	XLB · Materials	LEADING	101.32	100.68	201.99
5	XLC · Communications	LEADING	100.21	100.40	200.61
6	XLRE · Real Estate	IMPROVING	98.54	100.42	198.96
7	XLU · Utilities	IMPROVING	94.82	100.16	194.98

Top inferred rotations — 5-day window

From 55 positive-delta pairs. Magnitude = (toMomentum − fromMomentum) × min(dollar volume). Inference, not actual fund flows.

From	→	To	From mom	To mom	Capacity	Magnitude
XLK	→	XLV	-5.40%	+4.58%	$1.21B	121.0M
XLI	→	XLV	-3.93%	+4.58%	$1.09B	92.9M
XLK	→	XLP	-5.40%	+3.27%	$925.0M	80.2M
XLK	→	XLF	-5.40%	+1.11%	$1.21B	78.9M
XLK	→	XLE	-5.40%	+0.85%	$1.21B	75.7M
XLI	→	XLP	-3.93%	+3.27%	$925.0M	66.6M
XLE	→	XLV	+0.85%	+4.58%	$1.63B	60.7M
XLF	→	XLV	+1.11%	+4.58%	$1.73B	60.1M
XLU	→	XLV	-2.17%	+4.58%	$822.1M	55.5M
XLI	→	XLF	-3.93%	+1.11%	$1.09B	55.0M

Disclaimer: rotation analysis is descriptive, not predictive. The flow magnitudes shown are inferred from short-window sector returns and dollar volume — they are not measured fund flows or actual cash movements between ETFs. Use this read as context for hunting setups in the leading/improving quadrants; manage risk separately.