Sector Money Flow

Where institutional capital appears to be rotating across the 11 SPDR sectors. The rotation graph plots each sector by its 10-week relative strength against SPY — leading + improving quadrants are the bullish hunting grounds. The flow arrows are inferred from short-window return × dollar volume — a proxy, not actual cash-flow data.

Neutral

-7Regime score

Regime read: Neutral. 3 witnesses risk-on (Confirmation momentum, Macro context, Market breadth); 2 witnesses risk-off (Regime pulse, Direction flow).1 of 2 invalidations trippedView full read →

Regime label = blended top-down sentiment + breadth + sectors read. Use as macro context for the rotation read below.

Macro confirmation unavailable — macro data source is temporarily unavailable.

Sector Rotation — 8-week trails · 4wk projection overlay

1.00×

Sector projection — 4-week look-ahead

Linear extrapolation of recent trail. Descriptive, not predictive — confidence falls when the trail wobbles.

Transitions ahead

Bullish transitions

Bearish transitions

Sector	Current → Projected	Velocity (Δrs / Δmom per wk)	Confidence
XLI	Lagging→Improving	+0.26 / +0.25	86%
XLB	Lagging→Improving	−0.46 / +0.59	82%
XLV	Weakening→Lagging	−0.49 / −0.15	54%
XLF	Lagging→Improving	−0.69 / +0.67	44%
XLU	Improving→Leading	+1.23 / +1.61	30%
XLY	Improving→Leading	+0.38 / +0.81	17%

Linear projection — assumes current trail momentum continues. Real markets often mean-revert or accelerate.

Industry sub-sectors

Curated industry ETFs grouped by SPDR parent. Tile color = current quadrant; size = RS strength deviation from 100.

XLK · Technology(3)

CIBRLeading

Cybersecurity

R: 112.0·M: 103.4

IGVLeading

Software

R: 108.1·M: 101.8

SMHWeakening

Semiconductors

R: 105.0·M: 98.4

XLF · Financials(2)

KBELagging

Banks

R: 95.1·M: 98.6

KRELagging

Regional Banks

R: 95.4·M: 98.4

XLE · Energy(2)

OIHLagging

Oil Services

R: 97.5·M: 99.4

XOPLeading

Oil & Gas E&P

R: 104.7·M: 101.3

XLY · Discretionary(2)

XHBLagging

Homebuilders

R: 94.7·M: 99.7

XRTImproving

Retail

R: 99.6·M: 102.6

XLV · Healthcare(2)

IBBWeakening

Biotech

R: 101.9·M: 98.6

IHIImproving

Medical Devices

R: 99.0·M: 100.8

XLI · Industrials(2)

ITAImproving

Aerospace & Defense

R: 93.1·M: 100.2

IYTImproving

Transportation

R: 97.7·M: 101.4

XLB · Materials(1)

GDXLagging

Gold Miners

R: 96.2·M: 95.2

Sub-sector ETF tracking — 6 months of daily bars, weekly resampled. SMH/IGV/SOXX/etc. are the institutional proxies for these slices.

Sub-sector projection — 4-week look-ahead

Linear extrapolation of each industry ETF's recent trail. Confidence falls when the trail wobbles.

Leading

Improving

Weakening

Lagging

XLE1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
OIHOil Services	Lagging→Improving	−1.30 / +0.00	+1.18 / +0.00	61%

XLY2 sub-sectors

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
XRTRetail	Improving→Leading	+1.12 / +0.00	+1.47 / +0.00	86%
XHBHomebuilders	Lagging→Improving	+0.09 / +0.00	+0.24 / +0.00	78%

XLV1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
IBBBiotech	Weakening→Lagging	−1.13 / +0.00	−0.32 / +0.00	59%

XLI1 sub-sector

Sub-sector	Current → Projected	Δratio/wk	Δmom/wk	Confidence
IYTTransportation	Improving→Leading	+0.68 / +0.00	+1.00 / +0.00	65%

Linear projection — assumes current trail momentum continues. Real markets often mean-revert or accelerate.

Bayesian transition prior — aggregate

Observed historical quadrant transitions across the 11 sectors over their 8-week trails (77 observations, Laplace-smoothed). Use as a prior to dampen noisy kinematic projections.

From \ To	leading	improving	weakening	lagging
leading	44%	6%	44%	6%
improving	14%	29%	14%	43%
weakening	13%	3%	60%	23%
lagging	5%	16%	3%	76%

Inferred sector rotation — 5-day proxy. Not actual fund flows.

Bullish sectors — Leading + Improving

5 of 11 sectors are in constructive quadrants. Composite score = RS-Ratio + RS-Momentum.

#	Sector	Quadrant	RS-Ratio	RS-Mom	Composite
1	XLE · Energy	LEADING	104.37	100.28	204.65
2	XLU · Utilities	IMPROVING	99.42	103.02	202.45
3	XLP · Staples	LEADING	100.38	100.97	201.35
4	XLY · Discretionary	IMPROVING	99.51	100.87	200.37
5	XLRE · Real Estate	IMPROVING	96.97	100.40	197.38

Top inferred rotations — 5-day window

From 55 positive-delta pairs. Magnitude = (toMomentum − fromMomentum) × min(dollar volume). Inference, not actual fund flows.

From	→	To	From mom	To mom	Capacity	Magnitude
XLK	→	XLU	-0.52%	+3.97%	$1.35B	60.4M
XLK	→	XLE	-0.52%	+3.60%	$1.35B	55.4M
XLI	→	XLU	-0.41%	+3.97%	$1.13B	49.5M
XLI	→	XLE	-0.41%	+3.60%	$1.13B	45.3M
XLK	→	XLV	-0.52%	+2.79%	$1.35B	44.5M
XLK	→	XLF	-0.52%	+2.32%	$1.35B	38.2M
XLI	→	XLV	-0.41%	+2.79%	$1.13B	36.2M
XLK	→	XLP	-0.52%	+3.60%	$874.0M	36.0M
XLI	→	XLP	-0.41%	+3.60%	$874.0M	35.1M
XLI	→	XLF	-0.41%	+2.32%	$1.13B	30.9M

Disclaimer: rotation analysis is descriptive, not predictive. The flow magnitudes shown are inferred from short-window sector returns and dollar volume — they are not measured fund flows or actual cash movements between ETFs. Use this read as context for hunting setups in the leading/improving quadrants; manage risk separately.