Breakout Intelligence Terminal
Institutional-grade pattern detection across the universe — VCP, cup-and-handle, flat-base, ascending triangle, stage-2 prior trend, with Minervini template gating, sector RRG context, and forward proof-of-edge from historical outcomes. Click any row for the chart; the drawer surfaces the full conviction stack.
Performance & learning
Research targets: at least 90% target-before-stop hits and over 10% average net return per resolved trade within 20 sessions. These are objectives, not predicted results.
Outcome review pending. No independently verified 90% target probability yet.
Pattern coverage and data requirements
34 detectors are registered. A detector emits a setup only when its price, volume and history requirements pass. Detection scores are not verified win probabilities.
- High-tight flag
- Donchian breakout
- NR7 breakout
- Darvas box breakout
- Rectangle breakout
- Ascending triangle
- Symmetrical triangle
- Bull flag
- Bull pennant
- Channel breakout
- Squeeze breakout
- Pre-breakout coil
- 52-week high breakout
- Cup with handle
- Volatility contraction pattern
- Rounded base
- Double bottom
- Triple bottom
- Inverse head and shoulders
- Falling wedge
- Downtrend line breakout
- Breakout retest hold
- 20-day moving average bounce
- 50-day moving average bounce
- 200-day moving average bounce
- Head and shoulders
- Double top
- Triple top
- Rising wedge
- Descending triangle breakdown
- Bear flag
- Bear pennant
- Wyckoff accumulation
- Wyckoff distribution
Opening range breakout: US regular session, first 60 minutes, completed 1-hour bars only. Select the 1h scan; daily scans cannot detect ORB. Intraday outcomes await intraday evaluation.
52-week highs require 252 prior daily sessions. All-time highs require explicitly verified history since listing; the current rolling-history feed cannot certify them.
New pattern outcomes are recorded for research and excluded from the existing frozen experiment. Their trading performance has not yet been prospectively validated.
Individual setup tracker
Immutable setup observations before screening and after screening. Paper outcomes use original targets and stops, with 15 bps costs. Watching entries have no confirmed trade. Rows are observations, not independent trades.
Loading tracked entries…
High-conviction setups
0 of 8 signals pass every evidence check. The hero also requires a risk-adjusted composite ≥ 60.
Setup scores are not win probabilities. Historical estimates need independent forward validation. Missing evidence stays unverified.
Why candidates pass or wait
NET · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 1.57:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 7.1% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
CRWD · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 1.14:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 5.1% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
GME · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 0.18:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 15.2% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
DDOG · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 0.10:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 14.8% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
GME · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 0.84:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 14.9% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
PLTR · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 0.28:1 at latest close; Within 5% of trigger: 16.0% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
PLTR · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: Missing or invalid entry, target or stop; Within 5% of trigger: 13.1% past trigger; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
ARKK · Entry reward/risk ≥ 2:1: 1.56:1 at latest close; Historical evidence: ≥30 samples, ≥55%: Need ≥30 pattern/family samples and a ≥55% historical estimate; pooled rates and priors do not qualify
- Trigger $86.60 → Current $89.62 (+3.5%)
- Volume 1.1x avg
- R:R 3.7RIf entered now 1.6R
- Risk multiplier ×0.90
- • Low volume — Volume on the break is less than 1.2× the 20-day average.
- Breakout Quality: Pattern quality 73/100
- Breakout Quality: Volume 1.15× 20d avg → 77/100
- Breakout Quality: Relative strength 64/100
- Breakout Quality: Context/trend 80/100
- Trade Readiness: Risk-on regime → +10
- Historical Edge (this symbol): No prior trades for this symbol+pattern yet — pooled family calibration & live detector reliability are shown separately
- Regime Alignment: Macro risk-on → +15
- Trigger $23.06 → Current $26.56 (+15.2%)
- Volume 1.6x avg
- R:R if entered now 0.2RFrom current price — signal is extended past its trigger.
- Risk multiplier ×0.85
- • Extended — Price is more than 8% past the trigger — chasing risk.
- Breakout Quality: Pattern quality 75/100
- Breakout Quality: Volume 1.57× 20d avg → 100/100
- Breakout Quality: Relative strength 74/100
- Breakout Quality: Context/trend 80/100
- Trade Readiness: Extended (>5% past trigger) → −25
- Trade Readiness: Risk-on regime → +10
- Historical Edge (this symbol): No prior trades for this symbol+pattern yet — pooled family calibration & live detector reliability are shown separately
- Regime Alignment: Macro risk-on → +15
- Trigger $337.00 → Current $360.93 (+7.1%)
- Volume 0.9x avg
- R:R 4.4RIf entered now 1.6R
- Risk multiplier ×0.90
- • Low volume — Volume on the break is less than 1.2× the 20-day average.
- Breakout Quality: Pattern quality 73/100
- Breakout Quality: Volume 0.87× 20d avg → 58/100
- Breakout Quality: Relative strength 82/100
- Breakout Quality: Context/trend 80/100
- Trade Readiness: Extended (>5% past trigger) → −25
- Trade Readiness: Risk-on regime → +10
- Historical Edge (this symbol): No prior trades for this symbol+pattern yet — pooled family calibration & live detector reliability are shown separately
- Regime Alignment: Macro risk-on → +15
Only patterns in the high/medium precision tiers are shown here. A symbol can appear with a different pattern, and a higher score, in the full ranked list. Those patterns haven't yet met the precision bar for this strip.
Discovery, screeners & gate attributionWhat’s new, rotating, screening, and why N of M surfaced
Scans run on a schedule. Click any signal row to view its chart.
106 of 113 symbols had usable data. 7 failed data checks; missing signals do not indicate a quiet market.
Data failure examples
WULF: data suspect: split-like 60% single-day close gap (>40%)
OKLO: data suspect: split-like 42% single-day close gap (>40%)
DJT: data suspect: split-like 42% single-day close gap (>40%)
RDDT: data suspect: split-like 42% single-day close gap (>40%)
RGTI: data suspect: split-like 58% single-day close gap (>40%)
Setups tracked
11
Actionable
8
Confirmed
8
Saved Runs
0
Includes 3 developing watchlist setups. Early stages describe distance to the trigger; they are not confirmed entries. Near target describes progress after a breakout, not pattern completion.
Bearish watch — 20 short / avoid setups excluded from the actionable ranking
Long-only actionable ranking: short / avoid setups are detected and tracked, but never ranked — their historical hit rate (~10% in the live outcome ledger) is too low to publish as actionable. Showing the precision-tier drop-chain samples for this run (scores unavailable on the cached record).
- ASTSdescending triangle breakdown
- ASTShead shoulders
- CLSKtriple top
- DEhead shoulders
- DEdouble top
- DIAtriple top
- DIAdouble top
- GStriple top
- IRENdescending triangle breakdown
- IRENhead shoulders
- IRENdouble top
- LMTtriple top
| Symbol | Patterns | Top pattern | Score | Hit-rate | R:R | Price | Trigger | Target | ETA | Options | Why it ranked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⋯ | LONGNET | 1breakout retest hold | breakout retest holdSupportretest | 71 | — | 4.4:1 | 360.93+7.1% | 337.00 | 433.18 | - | Grading… | |
| ⋯ | LONGCRWD | 1breakout retest hold | breakout retest holdSupportretest | 71 | — | 3.0:1 | 275.04+5.1% | 261.62 | 307.75 | - | Grading… | |
| ⋯ | LONGARKK | 1breakout retest hold | breakout retest holdSupportretest | 64 | — | 3.7:1 | 89.62+3.5% | 86.60 | 99.93 | - | Grading… |
| Symbol | Patterns | Top pattern | Score | Hit-rate | R:R | Price | Trigger | Target | ETA | Options | Why it ranked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⋯ | LONGGME | 2breakout retest hold, rounded base | breakout retest holdSupportretest | 70 | — | 0.2:1now2.6:1 | 26.56+15.2% | 23.06 | 27.50 | - | Grading… | |
| ⋯ | LONGDDOG | 1breakout retest hold | breakout retest holdSupportretest | 70 | — | 0.1:1now2.5:1 | 293.26+14.8% | 255.50 | 298.51 | - | Grading… | |
| ⋯ | LONGPLTR | 2rounded base, breakout retest hold | rounded baseReversalreversal | 70 | — | 0.3:1now4.0:1 | 209.05+16.0% | 180.18 | 220.07 | - | Grading… |
No signals in this stage right now.
| Symbol | Patterns | Top pattern | Score | Hit-rate | R:R | Price | Trigger | Target | ETA | Options | Why it ranked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⋯ | LONGNET | 1pre breakout coil | pre breakout coilContinuationpre-trigger | 72 | — | 0.9:1 | 360.93-1.4% | 365.88 | 392.93 | - | Watch · unconfirmed |
| Symbol | Patterns | Top pattern | Score | Hit-rate | R:R | Price | Trigger | Target | ETA | Options | Why it ranked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⋯ | LONGTMO | 1pre breakout coil | pre breakout coilContinuationpre-trigger | 64 | — | 0.9:1 | 658.02-4.0% | 685.53 | 732.32 | - | Watch · unconfirmed | |
| ⋯ | LONGKO | 1pre breakout coil | pre breakout coilContinuationpre-trigger | 64 | — | 0.9:1 | 88.05-4.3% | 92.00 | 98.41 | - | Watch · unconfirmed |
No signals in this stage right now.
Recent breakout runs
Saved snapshots from manual scans.
No saved breakout runs yet
Use Run Breakout Scan once, then recent run history will appear here and on the dashboard.
Engine reference — live regime, historical expectancy, forward proof, diagnostics & full methodology
Background that explains and audits the ranked table above — open it when you want to understand the score, not when you're deciding what to trade.
Methodology — what qualifies as a breakout, scoring, risk flags
What qualifies as a breakout signal
- Price closes above a defined resistance or pattern trigger.
- Breakout distance exceeds a minimum threshold (pattern-specific).
- Volume confirms or does not contradict the move.
- Liquidity passes minimum tradability checks (ADV ≥ $1M / day).
- The signal is not immediately invalidated by a reversal back below trigger.
- Similar patterns have acceptable historical expectancy when sample size ≥ 5.
Supported breakout types: close breakout, intraday breakout, gap breakout, base breakout, range expansion, reclaim breakout, failed- break reversal, continuation breakout, earnings breakout, news- driven breakout.
Lifecycle stages
The scanner table tags each signal with one of six progress-to-target stages (the stage badge), ordered earliest → latest:
- Near starting: forming setup at least 5% from its trigger; no confirmed breakout.
- Just started: forming setup 3.5–5% from its trigger.
- Approaching: forming setup less than 3.5% from the trigger on the pre-breakout side.
- Breaking: trigger was just cleared and the break is fresh (≤8% past trigger).
- Extended: more than 8% past trigger — chasing risk elevated; wait for a retest. Takes precedence over "near target".
- Near target: price within 25% of target1 (or has overshot it) — manage out, not a fresh entry.
The individual-signal detail drawer additionally maps the raw structural state into the finer nine-stage taxonomy (forming / near trigger / triggered / confirmed / extended / retesting / reclaimed / failed / matured) for stage-specific copy and tone. Both sit on top of the engine’s five-state machine (forming → triggered → confirmed → failed → reclaimed). Canonical counts: 5 engine states · 6 table stages · 9 detail stages.
Score decomposition (composite 0..100)
- 40% Breakout Quality — pattern, volume, RS, trend, compression
- 25% Trade Readiness — distance from trigger, regime, sector alignment
- 20% Historical Edge — this symbol’s own win-rate × reliability × sample size (pooled per-family calibration “pf•” and the live detector-reliability badge are separate, wider populations shown on each row)
- 15% Regime Alignment — macro regime + sector zone
The composite is then multiplied by a risk-penalty product (each ≤ 1.0) for extended setups, earnings proximity, low liquidity, weak history, gap exhaustion, and a few others — so two signals with the same raw breakout quality can have very different composites once risk is applied.
Risk flag catalogue
- Extended — price > 8% past trigger
- Low volume — volume < 1.2× 20d avg on the break
- Weak RS — relative strength score < 50
- Earnings ≤3d — gap-risk window
- Earnings ≤7d — elevated event risk
- Low liquidity — ADV < $1M / day
- Bearish regime — macro risk-off
- Weak sector — sector in laggard cohort
- Low sample — pattern n < 5
- Weak history — pattern win-rate < 40%
- Gap exhaustion — ATR expansion > 4×
- Failed — closed back below invalidation
Decision labels
- Research-worthy — composite ≥ 70, lifecycle confirmed/ triggered/reclaimed/retesting, no chasing risk.
- Watchlist candidate — composite ≥ 50, setup forming or near trigger.
- Wait for setup — forming, score < 55. Note the trigger and revisit.
- Needs confirmation — mixed read; research prompt only.
- Weak signal · avoid chasing — extended past trigger, failed, matured, or composite < 35.
Probability grade column (A / B / C / D / —)
The grade pill is a calibrated probability, and it is produced by a two-tier cascade — not a single sample bar. A letter is shown when either tier qualifies:
- Tier 1 — tight per-pattern cell, n ≥ 20. The raw outcome-backed hit-rate for this exact pattern×context cell (the proof badge). It is an unsmoothed frequency, so it needs the stricter 20-outcome bar before it may be graded (basis
historical-hit-rate). - Tier 2 — wider per-family fallback, n ≥ 8. If the tight cell is too thin, a per-family isotonic calibration (pooled across the pattern family / family group, the “pf•” figure on each row) can still grade at 8–19 outcomes — the same sample size the family fitter qualified the model under. Because this value is isotonic-calibrated and hard-clamped to 2–85%, it is a model output rather than a raw frequency, which is why it carries the lower bar (basis
calibrated-only). A flat, non-discriminating isotonic cell is rejected as uninformative and falls through to “—”. So a row can honestly show a letter withcellNof, say, 16.
A is ≥ 70%, B ≥ 55%, C ≥ 40%, D < 40%; every displayed probability is capped at 85% (empirical breakout hit-rates are never certainties). Detector self-confidence, when surfaced at all, is marked uncalibrated (dashed pill, “~” marker, n=0) and its letter is capped at B so it can never be mistaken for an evidence-backed A.
A grey dashed “—” means insufficient calibrated sample (reported as NR, not “D” — unknown is not the worst grade), not a failing setup. The pooled “global” calibrator degenerates toward the raw score, so it is surfaced as uncalibrated rather than a percentage. Expect the column to read “—” for any pattern family still under 8 forward outcomes for the current universe; that is the honest, anti-overconfidence default rather than a bug. Grades populate as the replay history backfills.
Limitations & disclaimer
Some fields (liquidity grade, spread estimate, earnings date) are surfaced only when the upstream data source provides them. Missing fields render explicit fallback labels — never fake values. Historical expectancy with sample < 5 is shown but flagged as low-sample. This page surfaces analytical signals derived from public market data; it is not personalised investment advice. Do your own due diligence and manage risk according to your situation.