Live OOS Scoreboard
Per-detector hit-rate, Brier score, and reliability calibration on real recorded outcomes from the production `signal_outcomes` ledger — not synthetic walk-forward fixtures.
Outcomes recorded
3,187
Hit rate
57.5%
Brier score
0.2769
n=3187 (rows w/ confidence)
Earliest sample
11/20/2025, 6:19:01 PM
generated 5/25/2026, 8:54:06 PM
Per-detector scoreboard
Sorted by Brier ascending (lowest = best calibrated). Detectors with no confidence-bearing rows fall to the bottom by hit-rate.
| Detector | N | Hit rate | Brier | Brier N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| downtrend line breakout | 4 | 100.0% | 0.0400 | 4 |
| descending triangle breakdown | 125 | 100.0% | 0.0798 | 125 |
| channel breakout | 143 | 68.5% | 0.2090 | 143 |
| triple top | 81 | 85.2% | 0.2111 | 81 |
| head shoulders | 537 | 75.0% | 0.2433 | 537 |
| cup with handle | 60 | 58.3% | 0.2528 | 60 |
| breakout retest hold | 1269 | 52.6% | 0.2577 | 1269 |
| double top | 292 | 65.1% | 0.2915 | 292 |
| ascending triangle | 60 | 51.7% | 0.3164 | 60 |
| bear flag | 6 | 0.0% | 0.3423 | 6 |
| inverse head shoulders | 60 | 41.7% | 0.3501 | 60 |
| rounded base | 146 | 41.8% | 0.3606 | 146 |
| rectangle | 60 | 43.3% | 0.3746 | 60 |
| double bottom | 60 | 35.0% | 0.3855 | 60 |
| bull flag | 60 | 30.0% | 0.4127 | 60 |
| falling wedge | 60 | 28.3% | 0.4198 | 60 |
| rising wedge | 90 | 35.6% | 0.4282 | 90 |
| ma reclaim | 60 | 16.7% | 0.4954 | 60 |
| ma bounce 50 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.5553 | 4 |
| rectangle breakout | 5 | 0.0% | 0.6435 | 5 |
| symmetrical triangle | 5 | 0.0% | 0.6957 | 5 |
Reliability calibration
Each dot is a confidence-decile bucket: x = mean predicted probability, y = realized hit-rate. Dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. Dot size scales with bucket count.
| Decile | Range | N | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0%–10.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2 | 10.0%–20.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 3 | 20.0%–30.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 30.0%–40.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 40.0%–50.0% | 37 | 45.1% | 100.0% | 54.9% |
| 6 | 50.0%–60.0% | 334 | 56.0% | 76.3% | 20.3% |
| 7 | 60.0%–70.0% | 1251 | 65.3% | 50.8% | -14.5% |
| 8 | 70.0%–80.0% | 1085 | 72.5% | 60.6% | -12.0% |
| 9 | 80.0%–90.0% | 463 | 84.1% | 52.1% | -32.0% |
| 10 | 90.0%–100.0% | 17 | 90.0% | 35.3% | -54.7% |