Live OOS Scoreboard
Per-detector hit-rate, Brier score, and reliability calibration on real recorded outcomes from the production `signal_outcomes` ledger — not synthetic walk-forward fixtures.
Outcomes recorded
7,292
Hit rate
41.3%
Brier score
0.3223
n=7292 (rows w/ confidence)
Earliest sample
11/20/2025, 6:19:01 PM
generated 7/11/2026, 1:47:30 AM
Per-detector scoreboard
Sorted by Brier ascending (lowest = best calibrated). Detectors with no confidence-bearing rows fall to the bottom by hit-rate.
| Detector | N | Hit rate | Brier | Brier N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ma bounce 200 | 9 | 100.0% | 0.0400 | 9 |
| downtrend line breakout | 4 | 100.0% | 0.0400 | 4 |
| breakout retest hold | 2625 | 65.0% | 0.2173 | 2625 |
| cup with handle | 60 | 58.3% | 0.2528 | 60 |
| channel breakout | 166 | 60.8% | 0.2679 | 166 |
| ascending triangle | 60 | 51.7% | 0.3164 | 60 |
| bear flag | 6 | 0.0% | 0.3423 | 6 |
| rounded base | 305 | 45.9% | 0.3434 | 305 |
| inverse head shoulders | 60 | 41.7% | 0.3501 | 60 |
| triple top | 288 | 31.9% | 0.3663 | 288 |
| double top | 767 | 25.7% | 0.3724 | 767 |
| rectangle | 60 | 43.3% | 0.3746 | 60 |
| head shoulders | 1852 | 22.7% | 0.3842 | 1852 |
| double bottom | 60 | 35.0% | 0.3855 | 60 |
| falling wedge | 60 | 28.3% | 0.4198 | 60 |
| descending triangle breakdown | 619 | 20.4% | 0.4202 | 619 |
| bull flag | 65 | 27.7% | 0.4202 | 65 |
| rising wedge | 136 | 23.5% | 0.4608 | 136 |
| ma reclaim | 60 | 16.7% | 0.4954 | 60 |
| ma bounce 50 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.5553 | 4 |
| rectangle breakout | 21 | 4.8% | 0.6715 | 21 |
| symmetrical triangle | 5 | 0.0% | 0.6957 | 5 |
Reliability calibration
Each dot is a confidence-decile bucket: x = mean predicted probability, y = realized hit-rate. Dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. Dot size scales with bucket count.
| Decile | Range | N | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0%–10.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2 | 10.0%–20.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 3 | 20.0%–30.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 30.0%–40.0% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 40.0%–50.0% | 56 | 46.0% | 66.1% | 20.1% |
| 6 | 50.0%–60.0% | 652 | 56.3% | 41.7% | -14.5% |
| 7 | 60.0%–70.0% | 3047 | 65.6% | 32.5% | -33.2% |
| 8 | 70.0%–80.0% | 2787 | 72.6% | 48.9% | -23.7% |
| 9 | 80.0%–90.0% | 733 | 83.4% | 46.9% | -36.4% |
| 10 | 90.0%–100.0% | 17 | 90.0% | 35.3% | -54.7% |