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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
1694 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 1604, fixtures 90) Horizon: 5d 7/11/2026, 3:03:41 AM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · C 3 100.0%[44%–100%] -5.8% 11.2% -0.66[-35.57–4.01] -8.4% -5.97 ▸ 2 breakout retest hold · completed · B 436 60.8%[56%–65%] 1.8% 5.7% 2.85[2.38–3.31] -90.9% 2.55 ▸ 3 channel breakout · completed · B 16 56.3%[33%–77%] 0.3% 4.6% 1.42[-3.16–3.94] -18.8% 6.54 ▸ 4 channel breakout · completed · A 25 60.0%[41%–77%] 2.1% 3.9% 3.10[0.86–5.50] -18.2% 11.13 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · completed · C 169 39.1%[32%–47%] 1.5% 2.4% 2.28[1.50–3.06] -51.5% 4.23 ▸ 6 rounded base · completed · B 103 47.6%[38%–57%] 2.1% 2.2% 1.95[0.56–3.37] -65.1% 2.43 ▸ 7 rising wedge · completed · D 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 21.6% 0.0% 11.27[0.00–52.51] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 8 wyckoff distribution · completed · C 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 9 bear flag · completed · C 6 16.7%[3%–56%] 0.9% -1.9% 2.36[-5.03–9.71] -3.9% 16.19 ▸ 10 triple top · completed · C 31 3.2%[1%–16%] 2.1% -2.1% 4.12[2.41–6.13] -11.1% 27.89 ▸ 11 rectangle breakout · completed · B 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.3% -2.2% 0.64[-9.42–13.17] -4.8% 4.08 ▸ 12 vcp · completed · C 3 33.3%[6%–79%] -11.0% -2.7% -1.05[-42.01–3.53] -24.3% -5.52 ▸ 13 triple top · completed · B 41 0.0%[0%–9%] 0.2% -3.1% 1.33[-1.15–3.34] -27.8% 1.97 ▸ 14 head shoulders · completed · B 162 0.0%[0%–2%] -0.1% -3.3% 1.45[0.42–2.43] -74.8% 0.88 ▸ 15 descending triangle breakdown · completed · B 118 0.9%[0%–5%] 2.3% -3.3% 3.19[2.04–4.27] -31.7% 5.11 ▸ 16 double top · completed · C 130 0.8%[0%–4%] 0.2% -3.5% 2.18[1.20–3.03] -71.8% 2.11 ▸ 17 rectangle breakout · completed · A 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.8% -3.9% -10.81[-204.13–-10.50] -18.2% -10.83 ▸ 18 rising wedge · completed · B 12 0.0%[0%–24%] -2.6% -4.1% -4.02[-11.15–-0.03] -31.7% -3.67 ▸ 19 head shoulders · completed · C 223 0.9%[0%–3%] 0.8% -4.2% 1.50[0.70–2.21] -83.1% 1.18 ▸ 20 descending triangle breakdown · completed · C 48 6.3%[2%–17%] 4.1% -4.2% 3.21[0.90–7.25] -49.8% 3.51
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 wyckoff distribution 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 4.8% 0.0% 6.82[4.86–18.27] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 descending triangle breakdown · transition 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 3.4% 0.0% 6.63[0.00–20.69] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 4 rising wedge · transition 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 2.8% -3.0% 5.78[0.59–156.91] -3.0% 67.06 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · transition 49 63.3%[49%–75%] 3.6% 8.8% 4.38[3.12–5.72] -27.9% 19.49 ▸ 6 bear flag 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.9% -0.4% 4.21[-6.15–10.65] -0.6% 180.46 ▸ 7 descending triangle breakdown · bearish downtrend 162 0.6%[0%–3%] 2.7% -4.2% 3.04[2.06–4.20] -58.3% 2.66 ▸ 8 double top · transition 32 0.0%[0%–11%] 2.6% -4.6% 3.00[1.55–4.58] -23.9% 10.61 ▸ 9 breakout retest hold · neutral range 11 63.6%[35%–85%] 1.6% 3.5% 2.94[-1.30–8.85] -18.1% 9.62 ▸ 10 triple top · bearish downtrend 62 0.0%[0%–6%] 0.8% -2.6% 2.87[1.56–4.16] -23.1% 7.42
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold 606 54.6%[51%–59%] 1.6% 4.8% 2.67[2.26–3.10] -94.0% 2.42 ▸ 2 channel breakout 44 61.4%[47%–74%] 0.5% 4.5% 2.13[0.05–3.47] -22.5% 6.96 ▸ 3 rounded base 103 47.6%[38%–57%] 2.1% 2.2% 1.95[0.56–3.37] -65.1% 2.43 ▸ 4 wyckoff distribution 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 9.0% 0.0% 20.00[0.00–106.57] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 5 bear flag 6 16.7%[3%–56%] 0.9% -1.9% 2.36[-5.03–9.71] -3.9% 16.19 ▸ 6 vcp 3 33.3%[6%–79%] -11.0% -2.7% -1.05[-42.01–3.53] -24.3% -5.52 ▸ 7 triple top 72 1.4%[0%–7%] 0.4% -2.7% 2.72[1.37–3.95] -27.5% 5.97 ▸ 8 double top 170 0.6%[0%–3%] 0.9% -3.6% 2.36[1.48–3.17] -35.8% 4.33 ▸ 9 head shoulders 408 0.5%[0%–2%] 0.3% -3.9% 1.43[0.86–1.98] -82.5% 1.02 ▸ 10 descending triangle breakdown 172 2.3%[1%–6%] 2.6% -4.0% 2.65[1.55–3.81] -58.3% 2.44