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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
3341 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 3187, fixtures 154) Horizon: 5d 5/25/2026, 9:52:48 PM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · A 52 80.8%[68%–89%] 12.1% 15.7% 4.64[3.83–5.82] -9.4% 84.81 ▸ 2 vcp · completed · C 5 60.0%[23%–88%] 14.0% 6.2% 2.44[-4.11–38.51] -24.3% 12.83 ▸ 3 channel breakout · completed · B 51 64.7%[51%–76%] 1.7% 5.2% -0.29[-1.95–1.90] -100.0% -0.69 ▸ 4 wyckoff accumulation · completed · C 8 62.5%[31%–86%] 7.5% 3.6% 2.92[-2.77–10.49] -18.7% 9.76 ▸ 5 cup with handle · completed · D 11 81.8%[52%–95%] 3.9% 3.4% 7.39[2.31–22.34] -5.2% 38.18 ▸ 6 bull pennant · completed · C 3 100.0%[44%–100%] 3.6% 3.3% 13.32[0.00–45.71] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 7 channel breakout · completed · D 7 71.4%[36%–92%] 3.9% 3.0% 8.07[3.06–26.22] -1.8% 95.16 ▸ 8 cup with handle · completed · B 16 62.5%[39%–82%] 4.1% 2.3% 3.69[0.12–9.93] -7.5% 15.17 ▸ 9 rectangle · completed · D 10 60.0%[31%–83%] 2.0% 2.0% 3.38[-1.02–9.55] -4.4% 23.38 ▸ 10 ascending triangle · completed · B 20 60.0%[39%–78%] 3.6% 1.5% 3.47[0.09–8.65] -10.2% 10.53 ▸ 11 bull flag · completed · D 11 45.5%[21%–72%] 2.9% 1.2% 4.00[-0.07–14.24] -4.5% 23.45 ▸ 12 breakout retest hold · completed · B 787 63.3%[60%–67%] 5.2% 1.1% 1.78[1.27–2.33] -100.0% 3.53 ▸ 13 cup handle · completed · C 18 50.0%[29%–71%] -1.3% 0.9% 0.66[-3.19–4.06] -49.8% 0.87 ▸ 14 cup with handle · completed · C 33 48.5%[33%–65%] 1.6% 0.8% 2.33[0.08–4.77] -21.5% 3.76 ▸ 15 inverse head shoulders · completed · C 40 50.0%[35%–65%] 1.5% 0.6% 2.31[0.28–5.27] -15.1% 4.45 ▸ 16 rounded base · completed · C 35 45.7%[30%–62%] 1.4% 0.5% 3.12[0.81–5.86] -7.1% 10.66 ▸ 17 falling wedge · completed · D 13 61.5%[36%–82%] 1.6% 0.4% 0.65[-3.38–5.82] -17.9% 1.27 ▸ 18 channel breakout · completed · C 33 39.4%[25%–56%] 1.4% 0.4% 2.73[0.54–5.19] -5.1% 10.34 ▸ 19 wyckoff distribution · completed · C 8 62.5%[31%–86%] -11.5% 0.0% -3.46[-10.29–1.63] -70.6% -6.52 ▸ 20 bear pennant · completed · C 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -10.7% 0.0% -11.68[-169.03–-5.78] -33.0% -14.35
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · transition 11 0.0%[0%–26%] 8.2% 0.0% 18.14[12.51–165.96] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 bull pennant 3 100.0%[44%–100%] 3.6% 3.3% 13.32[0.00–45.71] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 ma bounce 50 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 4 symmetrical triangle · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 5 triple top · transition 14 0.0%[0%–22%] 16.4% -4.9% 6.82[3.49–12.23] -9.5% 81.67 ▸ 6 double top 3 33.3%[6%–79%] 3.5% 1.0% 6.28[0.00–16.58] -0.3% 731.73 ▸ 7 breakout retest hold · transition 134 64.9%[57%–72%] 3.9% 10.0% 4.77[3.71–5.77] -67.4% 8.04 ▸ 8 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 64 3.1%[1%–11%] 2.9% -1.8% 4.76[3.81–7.42] -3.7% 51.40 ▸ 9 double top · transition 75 0.0%[0%–5%] 3.6% -3.7% 4.55[3.74–5.87] -5.3% 105.01 ▸ 10 bear flag · bearish downtrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout 143 65.0%[57%–72%] 2.4% 8.0% 1.57[0.31–2.87] -100.0% 2.85 ▸ 2 vcp 5 60.0%[23%–88%] 14.0% 6.2% 2.44[-4.11–38.51] -24.3% 12.83 ▸ 3 wyckoff accumulation 8 62.5%[31%–86%] 7.5% 3.6% 2.92[-2.77–10.49] -18.7% 9.76 ▸ 4 bull pennant 3 100.0%[44%–100%] 3.6% 3.3% 13.32[0.00–45.71] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 5 cup with handle 60 58.3%[46%–70%] 3.1% 1.7% 3.43[1.40–5.76] -23.2% 4.81 ▸ 6 cup handle 18 50.0%[29%–71%] -1.3% 0.9% 0.66[-3.19–4.06] -49.8% 0.87 ▸ 7 rectangle 60 43.3%[32%–56%] 1.3% 0.1% 2.15[0.30–4.48] -12.3% 4.51 ▸ 8 ascending triangle 77 51.9%[41%–63%] 2.0% 0.1% 2.00[0.40–3.97] -39.5% 1.60 ▸ 9 wyckoff distribution 8 62.5%[31%–86%] -11.5% 0.0% -3.46[-10.29–1.63] -70.6% -6.52 ▸ 10 ma bounce 50 5 20.0%[4%–62%] 16.6% 0.0% 7.88[0.00–15.18] -1.5% 639.83