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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 90 days 2667 outcomesSource: sqlite (sqlite 2667, fixtures 0) Horizon: 5d 5/25/2026, 10:38:16 PM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · A 52 80.8%[68%–89%] 12.1% 15.7% 4.64[3.83–5.82] -9.4% 84.81 ▸ 2 channel breakout · completed · B 38 65.8%[50%–79%] 1.7% 7.1% -0.43[-2.42–2.02] -100.0% -1.18 ▸ 3 cup with handle · completed · B 8 62.5%[31%–86%] 4.3% 2.6% 4.58[-0.45–13.51] -3.3% 39.70 ▸ 4 bull flag · completed · D 6 50.0%[19%–81%] 1.4% 1.9% 3.54[-2.02–11.16] -2.0% 49.41 ▸ 5 ascending triangle · completed · B 8 62.5%[31%–86%] 4.2% 1.7% 4.38[-0.31–39.01] -6.6% 20.41 ▸ 6 channel breakout · completed · C 11 63.6%[35%–85%] 1.7% 1.7% 4.41[0.37–9.27] -2.2% 42.01 ▸ 7 ma reclaim · completed · B 8 37.5%[14%–69%] 0.9% 1.7% 3.13[-2.83–8.99] -6.9% 15.30 ▸ 8 inverse head shoulders · completed · C 14 42.9%[21%–67%] 2.9% 1.6% 4.22[0.74–9.58] -5.7% 20.20 ▸ 9 double bottom · completed · C 12 41.7%[19%–68%] 1.7% 1.5% 2.79[-1.23–8.00] -11.1% 10.04 ▸ 10 rounded base · completed · D 5 40.0%[12%–77%] 0.1% 1.5% 2.58[-10.40–9.65] -3.2% 21.16 ▸ 11 breakout retest hold · completed · B 787 63.3%[60%–67%] 5.2% 1.1% 1.78[1.27–2.33] -100.0% 3.53 ▸ 12 rectangle · completed · D 3 33.3%[6%–79%] -1.3% 1.0% 1.02[-13.59–6.55] -4.4% 11.28 ▸ 13 bull flag · completed · B 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 3.2% 0.6% 7.43[0.50–36.74] -0.6% 239.69 ▸ 14 inverse head shoulders · completed · B 5 40.0%[12%–77%] 1.1% 0.3% 1.71[-8.90–15.15] -7.7% 8.37 ▸ 15 falling wedge · completed · B 6 33.3%[10%–70%] 1.5% 0.2% 2.40[-3.01–10.04] -5.3% 13.48 ▸ 16 downtrend line breakout · completed · B 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 17 ma bounce 50 · completed · B 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 18 rising wedge · completed · D 12 8.3%[1%–35%] 2.7% -0.1% 5.12[3.15–8.67] -2.6% 154.27 ▸ 19 ascending triangle · completed · C 9 44.4%[19%–73%] 1.5% -0.3% 0.46[-4.04–6.34] -10.1% 1.30 ▸ 20 cup with handle · completed · C 9 33.3%[12%–65%] 0.3% -0.3% 1.19[-5.16–6.37] -6.3% 6.25
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · transition 11 0.0%[0%–26%] 8.2% 0.0% 18.14[12.51–165.96] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 ma bounce 50 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 symmetrical triangle · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 4 triple top · transition 14 0.0%[0%–22%] 16.4% -4.9% 6.82[3.49–12.23] -9.5% 81.67 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · transition 134 64.9%[57%–72%] 3.9% 10.0% 4.77[3.71–5.77] -67.4% 8.04 ▸ 6 double top · transition 75 0.0%[0%–5%] 3.6% -3.7% 4.55[3.74–5.87] -5.3% 105.01 ▸ 7 bear flag · bearish downtrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77 ▸ 8 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 24 4.2%[1%–20%] 2.6% -1.5% 4.29[2.96–6.19] -3.7% 69.51 ▸ 9 rectangle breakout · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.6% -4.1% 3.25[-23.06–9.64] -11.7% 43.07 ▸ 10 ma reclaim · bullish uptrend 20 20.0%[8%–42%] 2.0% -0.5% 3.11[0.15–6.96] -8.8% 9.17
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout 103 72.8%[64%–80%] 3.9% 11.1% 1.74[0.32–3.25] -100.0% 3.70 ▸ 2 inverse head shoulders 20 40.0%[22%–61%] 1.6% 0.9% 2.74[0.05–6.37] -12.9% 6.48 ▸ 3 cup with handle 20 45.0%[26%–66%] 1.5% 0.7% 2.20[-0.79–6.03] -10.1% 6.62 ▸ 4 downtrend line breakout 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 5 ma bounce 50 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 6 ascending triangle 20 50.0%[30%–70%] 1.7% -0.0% 1.46[-1.22–5.19] -14.7% 3.09 ▸ 7 bull flag 20 30.0%[15%–52%] 0.3% -0.1% 2.37[-0.70–6.37] -7.2% 7.91 ▸ 8 double bottom 20 35.0%[18%–57%] -0.9% -0.2% 0.42[-3.17–3.31] -19.9% 0.89 ▸ 9 rectangle 20 35.0%[18%–57%] 0.6% -0.3% 1.15[-1.84–4.79] -12.3% 2.58 ▸ 10 ma reclaim 20 20.0%[8%–42%] 2.0% -0.5% 3.11[0.15–6.96] -8.8% 9.17