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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 30 days 2401 outcomesSource: sqlite (sqlite 2401, fixtures 0) Horizon: 5d 5/25/2026, 10:38:53 PM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · A 51 80.4%[68%–89%] 12.1% 15.9% 4.69[3.87–5.92] -9.4% 86.25 ▸ 2 channel breakout · completed · B 31 71.0%[53%–84%] 1.7% 9.0% -0.52[-2.91–2.06] -100.0% -1.56 ▸ 3 breakout retest hold · completed · B 786 63.2%[60%–67%] 5.2% 1.1% 1.78[1.24–2.32] -100.0% 3.54 ▸ 4 downtrend line breakout · completed · B 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 5 ma bounce 50 · completed · B 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 6 rising wedge · completed · D 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 24.5% 0.0% 13.93[0.00–61.81] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 7 symmetrical triangle · completed · B 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 8 triple top · completed · B 18 0.0%[0%–18%] -2.9% -3.4% 1.55[-25.98–3.57] -28.1% 10.71 ▸ 9 descending triangle breakdown · completed · B 92 2.2%[1%–8%] 2.6% -3.7% 3.37[2.32–4.70] -19.1% 13.87 ▸ 10 bear flag · completed · C 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77 ▸ 11 rounded base · completed · B 85 42.4%[32%–53%] 2.3% -4.0% 1.81[0.30–3.50] -100.0% 4.58 ▸ 12 breakout retest hold · completed · C 477 29.3%[25%–34%] 1.9% -4.5% 0.58[-0.03–1.23] -100.0% 1.01 ▸ 13 rectangle breakout · completed · B 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 5.9% -4.8% 3.91[0.00–13.17] -9.4% 70.85 ▸ 14 rising wedge · completed · C 21 0.0%[0%–15%] 2.8% -5.3% 2.25[-0.51–4.77] -35.5% 4.14 ▸ 15 double top · completed · B 11 0.0%[0%–26%] -2.8% -5.3% 1.74[-4.87–4.35] -21.8% 14.47 ▸ 16 rising wedge · completed · B 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -5.3% -5.3% 4.38[2.18–11.71] -15.1% 95.97 ▸ 17 descending triangle breakdown · completed · A 11 0.0%[0%–26%] -7.1% -7.1% 0.00 -55.7% -6.46 ▸ 18 descending triangle breakdown · completed · C 22 0.0%[0%–15%] -3.1% -7.4% -1.90[-4.71–1.41] -58.6% -1.68 ▸ 19 head shoulders · completed · D 57 0.0%[0%–6%] -4.7% -7.4% -0.38[-2.64–1.40] -90.4% -0.34 ▸ 20 head shoulders · completed · B 164 0.0%[0%–2%] -1.1% -7.8% 0.82[-0.27–1.88] -94.3% 1.19
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · transition 11 0.0%[0%–26%] 8.2% 0.0% 18.14[12.51–165.96] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 24.5% 0.0% 13.93[0.00–61.81] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 ma bounce 50 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 4 symmetrical triangle · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 5 triple top · transition 14 0.0%[0%–22%] 16.4% -4.9% 6.82[3.49–12.23] -9.5% 81.67 ▸ 6 breakout retest hold · transition 133 64.7%[56%–72%] 4.2% 10.0% 4.77[3.83–5.79] -67.4% 8.08 ▸ 7 double top · transition 74 0.0%[0%–5%] 3.6% -3.7% 4.56[3.62–5.85] -5.3% 105.96 ▸ 8 bear flag · bearish downtrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77 ▸ 9 rectangle breakout · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.6% -4.1% 3.25[-23.06–9.64] -11.7% 43.07 ▸ 10 rounded base · bullish uptrend 72 50.0%[39%–61%] 4.5% -8.1% 2.20[0.65–4.09] -100.0% 5.98
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout 82 76.8%[67%–85%] 5.1% 13.7% 1.87[0.24–3.82] -100.0% 4.43 ▸ 2 downtrend line breakout 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 3 ma bounce 50 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 4 breakout retest hold 1266 50.3%[48%–53%] 3.7% -0.5% 1.34[0.95–1.79] -100.0% 2.56 ▸ 5 symmetrical triangle 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 6 bear flag 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77 ▸ 7 rounded base 85 42.4%[32%–53%] 2.3% -4.0% 1.81[0.30–3.50] -100.0% 4.58 ▸ 8 rectangle breakout 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.6% -4.1% 3.25[-23.06–9.64] -11.7% 43.07 ▸ 9 descending triangle breakdown 125 1.6%[0%–6%] 1.2% -5.1% 1.91[0.90–2.84] -79.1% 1.84 ▸ 10 rising wedge 30 0.0%[0%–11%] 4.1% -5.3% 3.09[1.57–4.70] -45.2% 10.68