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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 365 days 3187 outcomesSource: sqlite (sqlite 3187, fixtures 0) Horizon: 5d 5/25/2026, 9:53:54 PM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout · completed · A 52 80.8%[68%–89%] 12.1% 15.7% 4.64[3.83–5.82] -9.4% 84.81 ▸ 2 channel breakout · completed · B 51 64.7%[51%–76%] 1.7% 5.2% -0.29[-1.95–1.90] -100.0% -0.69 ▸ 3 cup with handle · completed · D 11 81.8%[52%–95%] 3.9% 3.4% 7.39[2.31–22.34] -5.2% 38.18 ▸ 4 channel breakout · completed · D 7 71.4%[36%–92%] 3.9% 3.0% 8.07[3.06–26.22] -1.8% 95.16 ▸ 5 cup with handle · completed · B 16 62.5%[39%–82%] 4.1% 2.3% 3.69[0.12–9.93] -7.5% 15.17 ▸ 6 rectangle · completed · D 10 60.0%[31%–83%] 2.0% 2.0% 3.38[-1.02–9.55] -4.4% 23.38 ▸ 7 ascending triangle · completed · B 20 60.0%[39%–78%] 3.6% 1.5% 3.47[0.09–8.65] -10.2% 10.53 ▸ 8 bull flag · completed · D 11 45.5%[21%–72%] 2.9% 1.2% 4.00[-0.07–14.24] -4.5% 23.45 ▸ 9 breakout retest hold · completed · B 787 63.3%[60%–67%] 5.2% 1.1% 1.78[1.27–2.33] -100.0% 3.53 ▸ 10 cup with handle · completed · C 33 48.5%[33%–65%] 1.6% 0.8% 2.33[0.08–4.77] -21.5% 3.76 ▸ 11 inverse head shoulders · completed · C 40 50.0%[35%–65%] 1.5% 0.6% 2.31[0.28–5.27] -15.1% 4.45 ▸ 12 rounded base · completed · C 35 45.7%[30%–62%] 1.4% 0.5% 3.12[0.81–5.86] -7.1% 10.66 ▸ 13 falling wedge · completed · D 13 61.5%[36%–82%] 1.6% 0.4% 0.65[-3.38–5.82] -17.9% 1.27 ▸ 14 channel breakout · completed · C 33 39.4%[25%–56%] 1.4% 0.4% 2.73[0.54–5.19] -5.1% 10.34 ▸ 15 double bottom · completed · C 34 41.2%[26%–58%] 1.1% 0.2% 1.44[-0.96–4.13] -12.6% 4.13 ▸ 16 ascending triangle · completed · C 33 48.5%[33%–65%] 1.7% 0.2% 3.04[0.63–6.22] -10.1% 7.39 ▸ 17 downtrend line breakout · completed · B 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 18 ma bounce 50 · completed · B 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 19 rectangle · completed · C 34 41.2%[26%–58%] 1.6% -0.1% 2.55[0.20–6.58] -10.8% 5.90 ▸ 20 bull flag · completed · C 31 32.3%[19%–50%] 0.4% -0.2% 2.43[0.00–5.35] -5.5% 10.10
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · transition 11 0.0%[0%–26%] 8.2% 0.0% 18.14[12.51–165.96] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 ma bounce 50 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 symmetrical triangle · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 89.1% -1.0% 7.63[3.00–12.52] -2.0% 1322.80 ▸ 4 triple top · transition 14 0.0%[0%–22%] 16.4% -4.9% 6.82[3.49–12.23] -9.5% 81.67 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · transition 134 64.9%[57%–72%] 3.9% 10.0% 4.77[3.71–5.77] -67.4% 8.04 ▸ 6 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 64 3.1%[1%–11%] 2.9% -1.8% 4.76[3.81–7.42] -3.7% 51.40 ▸ 7 double top · transition 75 0.0%[0%–5%] 3.6% -3.7% 4.55[3.74–5.87] -5.3% 105.01 ▸ 8 bear flag · bearish downtrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 2.9% -3.9% 4.51[-0.96–4.51] -3.9% 22.77 ▸ 9 cup with handle · bullish uptrend 60 58.3%[46%–70%] 3.1% 1.7% 3.43[1.40–5.76] -23.2% 4.81 ▸ 10 rectangle breakout · bullish uptrend 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.6% -4.1% 3.25[-23.06–9.64] -11.7% 43.07
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 channel breakout 143 65.0%[57%–72%] 2.4% 8.0% 1.57[0.31–2.87] -100.0% 2.85 ▸ 2 cup with handle 60 58.3%[46%–70%] 3.1% 1.7% 3.43[1.40–5.76] -23.2% 4.81 ▸ 3 ascending triangle 60 51.7%[39%–64%] 1.9% 0.5% 3.14[1.21–5.61] -14.7% 5.94 ▸ 4 rectangle 60 43.3%[32%–56%] 1.3% 0.1% 2.15[0.30–4.48] -12.3% 4.51 ▸ 5 downtrend line breakout 4 100.0%[51%–100%] -5.7% 0.0% -125.81[-132.91–0.00] -21.3% -13.75 ▸ 6 ma bounce 50 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 16.6% 0.0% 11.66[0.00–18.76] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 7 inverse head shoulders 60 41.7%[30%–54%] 0.8% -0.1% 1.35[-0.39–3.23] -21.4% 1.96 ▸ 8 bull flag 60 30.0%[20%–43%] 0.9% -0.5% 2.01[0.18–3.85] -14.7% 3.34 ▸ 9 breakout retest hold 1269 50.3%[48%–53%] 3.7% -0.5% 1.34[0.93–1.77] -100.0% 2.55 ▸ 10 double bottom 60 35.0%[24%–48%] 0.1% -0.7% 0.30[-1.62–2.00] -36.3% 0.29