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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 365 days 1606 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 1604, fixtures 2) Horizon: 5d 7/11/2026, 3:01:56 AM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold · completed · B 436 60.8%[56%–65%] 1.8% 5.7% 2.85[2.38–3.31] -90.9% 2.55 ▸ 2 channel breakout · completed · B 16 56.3%[33%–77%] 0.3% 4.6% 1.42[-3.16–3.94] -18.8% 6.54 ▸ 3 channel breakout · completed · A 25 60.0%[41%–77%] 2.1% 3.9% 3.10[0.86–5.50] -18.2% 11.13 ▸ 4 breakout retest hold · completed · C 169 39.1%[32%–47%] 1.5% 2.4% 2.28[1.50–3.06] -51.5% 4.23 ▸ 5 rounded base · completed · B 103 47.6%[38%–57%] 2.1% 2.2% 1.95[0.56–3.37] -65.1% 2.43 ▸ 6 rising wedge · completed · D 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 21.6% 0.0% 11.27[0.00–52.51] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 7 triple top · completed · C 30 0.0%[0%–11%] 2.5% -2.2% 4.21[2.32–6.40] -11.1% 28.82 ▸ 8 rectangle breakout · completed · B 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.3% -2.2% 0.64[-9.42–13.17] -4.8% 4.08 ▸ 9 bear flag · completed · C 3 33.3%[6%–79%] 0.0% -2.6% -0.70[-8.20–8.20] -3.9% -4.33 ▸ 10 triple top · completed · B 41 0.0%[0%–9%] 0.2% -3.1% 1.33[-1.15–3.34] -27.8% 1.97 ▸ 11 head shoulders · completed · B 162 0.0%[0%–2%] -0.1% -3.3% 1.45[0.42–2.43] -74.8% 0.88 ▸ 12 descending triangle breakdown · completed · B 118 0.9%[0%–5%] 2.3% -3.3% 3.19[2.04–4.27] -31.7% 5.11 ▸ 13 double top · completed · C 127 0.0%[0%–3%] 0.3% -3.6% 2.27[1.27–3.34] -71.8% 2.19 ▸ 14 rectangle breakout · completed · A 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.8% -3.9% -10.81[-204.13–-10.50] -18.2% -10.83 ▸ 15 rising wedge · completed · B 12 0.0%[0%–24%] -2.6% -4.1% -4.02[-11.15–-0.03] -31.7% -3.67 ▸ 16 head shoulders · completed · C 219 0.0%[0%–2%] 0.8% -4.2% 1.53[0.78–2.26] -83.1% 1.21 ▸ 17 double top · completed · B 39 0.0%[0%–9%] 3.1% -4.4% 3.24[1.25–5.52] -17.4% 9.97 ▸ 18 rising wedge · completed · C 13 7.7%[1%–33%] 2.4% -4.5% 2.84[-0.45–6.43] -7.4% 25.78 ▸ 19 descending triangle breakdown · completed · C 41 0.0%[0%–9%] 5.2% -5.0% 6.16[3.63–10.27] -18.6% 13.20 ▸ 20 head shoulders · completed · D 23 0.0%[0%–14%] -3.2% -6.0% 1.03[-2.12–3.57] -36.4% 2.10
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 4.8% 0.0% 6.82[4.86–18.27] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 descending triangle breakdown · transition 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 3.4% 0.0% 6.63[0.00–20.69] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 rising wedge · transition 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 2.8% -3.0% 5.78[0.59–156.91] -3.0% 67.06 ▸ 4 breakout retest hold · transition 49 63.3%[49%–75%] 3.6% 8.8% 4.38[3.12–5.72] -27.9% 19.49 ▸ 5 descending triangle breakdown · bearish downtrend 162 0.6%[0%–3%] 2.7% -4.2% 3.04[2.06–4.20] -58.3% 2.66 ▸ 6 double top · transition 32 0.0%[0%–11%] 2.6% -4.6% 3.00[1.55–4.58] -23.9% 10.61 ▸ 7 breakout retest hold · neutral range 11 63.6%[35%–85%] 1.6% 3.5% 2.94[-1.30–8.85] -18.1% 9.62 ▸ 8 triple top · bearish downtrend 62 0.0%[0%–6%] 0.8% -2.6% 2.87[1.56–4.16] -23.1% 7.42 ▸ 9 channel breakout · bullish uptrend 38 63.2%[47%–77%] 0.8% 4.6% 2.56[0.74–4.34] -16.8% 11.50 ▸ 10 breakout retest hold · bullish uptrend 546 53.7%[49%–58%] 1.4% 4.4% 2.49[1.96–2.95] -93.0% 2.16
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold 606 54.6%[51%–59%] 1.6% 4.8% 2.67[2.26–3.10] -94.0% 2.42 ▸ 2 channel breakout 41 58.5%[43%–72%] 0.6% 4.0% 2.33[0.44–3.85] -22.5% 7.63 ▸ 3 rounded base 103 47.6%[38%–57%] 2.1% 2.2% 1.95[0.56–3.37] -65.1% 2.43 ▸ 4 bear flag 3 33.3%[6%–79%] 0.0% -2.6% -0.70[-8.20–8.20] -3.9% -4.33 ▸ 5 triple top 71 0.0%[0%–5%] 0.5% -2.7% 2.74[1.46–4.00] -27.5% 6.05 ▸ 6 rectangle breakout 9 11.1%[2%–44%] -2.8% -3.0% -3.62[-13.76–0.77] -19.8% -5.07 ▸ 7 double top 167 0.0%[0%–2%] 1.0% -3.7% 2.44[1.58–3.21] -35.8% 4.46 ▸ 8 head shoulders 404 0.0%[0%–1%] 0.3% -3.9% 1.44[0.85–2.00] -82.5% 1.03 ▸ 9 rising wedge 28 3.6%[1%–18%] 0.8% -4.2% 1.98[-0.47–3.89] -36.8% 3.73 ▸ 10 descending triangle breakdown 165 0.6%[0%–3%] 2.7% -4.2% 3.11[1.98–4.25] -58.3% 2.72