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← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 365 days 2011 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 2009, fixtures 2) Horizon: 5d 10/9/2026, 7:16:17 PM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 ma bounce 200 · completed · B 10 70.0%[40%–89%] 4.2% 3.5% 2.38[-1.74–9.65] -26.9% 7.88 ▸ 2 rounded base · completed · B 107 12.2%[7%–20%] 0.1% 0.0% 0.88[-0.28–1.68] -37.3% 2.20 ▸ 3 breakout retest hold · completed · B 746 30.0%[27%–33%] -0.2% -1.2% 0.20[-0.32–0.71] -95.0% 0.09 ▸ 4 ma bounce 200 · completed · C 7 28.6%[8%–64%] 1.1% -1.9% -0.56[-7.18–6.25] -9.3% -1.90 ▸ 5 rounded base · completed · C 28 14.3%[6%–31%] 0.3% -1.9% 0.18[-2.55–3.21] -14.9% 0.27 ▸ 6 channel breakout · completed · B 12 0.0%[0%–24%] 0.1% -2.3% 0.28[-3.81–4.29] -5.5% 0.91 ▸ 7 breakout retest hold · completed · C 1061 17.6%[15%–20%] -0.8% -2.5% -1.02[-1.50–-0.59] -100.0% -0.40 ▸ 8 breakout retest hold · completed · D 17 11.8%[3%–34%] 0.3% -2.7% 1.96[-2.05–4.68] -10.9% 7.62 ▸ 9 rounded base · completed · A 10 0.0%[0%–28%] -2.3% -3.5% -6.55[-12.22–-4.41] -25.1% -5.57 ▸ 10 ma bounce 50 · completed · B 6 50.0%[19%–81%] -5.4% -3.8% -6.51[-19.42–-1.21] -28.3% -9.35
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold · neutral range 3 0.0%[0%–56%] -0.3% -0.3% 3.25[-55.38–7.44] -0.4% 172.72 ▸ 2 ma bounce 200 · bullish uptrend 17 52.9%[31%–74%] 1.1% 1.7% 1.64[-1.63–5.79] -33.8% 3.48 ▸ 3 rounded base · transition 11 9.1%[2%–38%] 0.1% -1.7% 1.02[-3.45–6.52] -7.1% 4.56 ▸ 4 breakout retest hold · transition 21 4.8%[1%–23%] -0.1% -1.7% 0.68[-3.73–2.70] -21.6% 2.16 ▸ 5 rounded base · bullish uptrend 135 11.8%[7%–18%] -0.1% -0.6% 0.62[-0.73–1.23] -49.1% 1.07 ▸ 6 channel breakout · bullish uptrend 12 0.0%[0%–24%] 0.1% -2.3% 0.28[-3.81–4.29] -5.5% 0.91 ▸ 7 breakout retest hold · bullish uptrend 1800 22.9%[21%–25%] -0.4% -1.9% -0.51[-0.85–-0.19] -100.0% -0.20 ▸ 8 ma bounce 50 · bullish uptrend 6 50.0%[19%–81%] -5.4% -3.8% -6.51[-19.42–-1.21] -28.3% -9.35
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 ma bounce 200 17 52.9%[31%–74%] 1.1% 1.7% 1.64[-1.63–5.79] -33.8% 3.48 ▸ 2 rounded base 147 11.6%[7%–18%] 0.0% -0.7% 0.64[-0.47–1.23] -49.9% 1.03 ▸ 3 breakout retest hold 1824 22.6%[21%–25%] -0.4% -1.9% -0.48[-0.78–-0.18] -100.0% -0.19 ▸ 4 channel breakout 12 0.0%[0%–24%] 0.1% -2.3% 0.28[-3.81–4.29] -5.5% 0.91 ▸ 5 ma bounce 50 6 50.0%[19%–81%] -5.4% -3.8% -6.51[-19.42–-1.21] -28.3% -9.35