More ▾
← Back to Breakouts Best Breakouts by Realized PnL Historical expectancy and Sharpe by (pattern × stage × grade) cell, computed from the same realized-outcome pool that powers calibration and adaptive weights. Cells with fewer than 3 samples are hidden.
Recency window: 30 d 90 d 1 y All Only outcomes detected in the last 365 days 1783 outcomesSource: mixed (sqlite 1781, fixtures 2) Horizon: 5d 8/25/2026, 6:30:14 AM
Top cells by expectancy (pattern × stage × grade) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold · completed · B 480 59.0%[55%–63%] 2.2% 5.3% 3.13[2.64–3.63] -90.9% 2.77 ▸ 2 channel breakout · completed · B 16 56.3%[33%–77%] 0.3% 4.6% 1.42[-3.16–3.94] -18.8% 6.54 ▸ 3 channel breakout · completed · A 25 60.0%[41%–77%] 2.1% 3.9% 3.10[0.86–5.50] -18.2% 11.13 ▸ 4 breakout retest hold · completed · C 177 38.4%[32%–46%] 1.4% 2.2% 2.37[1.56–3.20] -51.5% 4.49 ▸ 5 rounded base · completed · B 118 42.4%[34%–51%] 2.1% 1.9% 2.11[0.81–3.34] -65.1% 2.61 ▸ 6 rising wedge · completed · D 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 21.6% 0.0% 11.27[0.00–52.51] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 7 triple top · completed · C 37 0.0%[0%–9%] 0.2% -1.8% 3.70[2.19–5.47] -11.1% 23.53 ▸ 8 ma bounce 200 · completed · B 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 7.2% -1.9% 5.82[0.49–15.68] -3.7% 79.29 ▸ 9 rectangle breakout · completed · B 4 25.0%[5%–70%] 0.3% -2.2% 0.64[-9.42–13.17] -4.8% 4.08 ▸ 10 bear flag · completed · C 3 33.3%[6%–79%] 0.0% -2.6% -0.70[-8.20–8.20] -3.9% -4.33 ▸ 11 triple top · completed · B 47 0.0%[0%–8%] -0.0% -3.2% 1.26[-0.78–3.01] -27.8% 2.00 ▸ 12 head shoulders · completed · B 166 0.0%[0%–2%] -0.0% -3.2% 1.60[0.51–2.47] -74.8% 1.03 ▸ 13 descending triangle breakdown · completed · B 121 0.8%[0%–5%] 2.3% -3.3% 3.18[2.04–4.28] -31.7% 5.16 ▸ 14 double top · completed · C 140 0.0%[0%–3%] 0.2% -3.5% 2.06[1.15–3.00] -71.8% 1.91 ▸ 15 rectangle breakout · completed · A 5 0.0%[0%–43%] -2.8% -3.9% -10.81[-204.13–-10.50] -18.2% -10.83 ▸ 16 head shoulders · completed · C 282 0.0%[0%–1%] 0.9% -4.0% 1.88[1.14–2.49] -83.1% 1.47 ▸ 17 rising wedge · completed · B 12 0.0%[0%–24%] -2.6% -4.1% -4.02[-11.15–-0.03] -31.7% -3.67 ▸ 18 double top · completed · B 41 0.0%[0%–9%] 3.0% -4.5% 2.86[0.81–4.98] -17.4% 8.82 ▸ 19 rising wedge · completed · C 13 7.7%[1%–33%] 2.4% -4.5% 2.84[-0.45–6.43] -7.4% 25.78 ▸ 20 descending triangle breakdown · completed · C 44 0.0%[0%–8%] 4.9% -4.7% 5.99[3.43–9.28] -18.6% 13.10
Top cells by Sharpe (pattern × regime) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 rising wedge · bullish uptrend 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 4.8% 0.0% 6.82[4.86–18.27] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 2 descending triangle breakdown · transition 3 0.0%[0%–56%] 3.4% 0.0% 6.63[0.00–20.69] 0.0% 0.00 ▸ 3 ma bounce 200 · bullish uptrend 4 0.0%[0%–49%] 7.2% -3.0% 6.50[-0.60–6.50] -3.0% 78.94 ▸ 4 rising wedge · transition 5 0.0%[0%–43%] 2.8% -3.0% 5.78[0.59–156.91] -3.0% 67.06 ▸ 5 breakout retest hold · transition 54 61.1%[48%–73%] 3.6% 8.3% 4.66[3.35–6.21] -27.9% 20.98 ▸ 6 descending triangle breakdown · bearish downtrend 169 0.6%[0%–3%] 2.6% -4.2% 3.06[2.01–4.10] -58.3% 2.70 ▸ 7 breakout retest hold · neutral range 11 63.6%[35%–85%] 1.6% 3.5% 2.94[-1.30–8.85] -18.1% 9.62 ▸ 8 double top · transition 35 0.0%[0%–10%] 2.1% -4.3% 2.76[1.42–4.19] -23.9% 9.46 ▸ 9 breakout retest hold · bullish uptrend 593 52.4%[48%–56%] 1.7% 4.1% 2.71[2.32–3.15] -93.0% 2.33 ▸ 10 triple top · bearish downtrend 73 0.0%[0%–5%] 0.5% -2.5% 2.70[1.33–3.88] -23.1% 6.76
Top detectors by expectancy (pattern only) # Cell Trades Hit rate Median ret Expectancy Sharpe MaxDD Calmar ▸ 1 breakout retest hold 658 53.3%[50%–57%] 1.8% 4.5% 2.88[2.50–3.29] -94.0% 2.62 ▸ 2 channel breakout 41 58.5%[43%–72%] 0.6% 4.0% 2.33[0.44–3.85] -22.5% 7.63 ▸ 3 rounded base 118 42.4%[34%–51%] 2.1% 1.9% 2.11[0.81–3.34] -65.1% 2.61 ▸ 4 ma bounce 200 6 0.0%[0%–39%] 7.2% -1.9% 5.82[0.49–15.68] -3.7% 79.29 ▸ 5 bear flag 3 33.3%[6%–79%] 0.0% -2.6% -0.70[-8.20–8.20] -3.9% -4.33 ▸ 6 triple top 84 0.0%[0%–4%] 0.1% -2.6% 2.49[1.31–3.53] -27.5% 5.30 ▸ 7 rectangle breakout 9 11.1%[2%–44%] -2.8% -3.0% -3.62[-13.76–0.77] -19.8% -5.07 ▸ 8 double top 183 0.0%[0%–2%] 0.8% -3.6% 2.17[1.28–2.93] -35.8% 3.85 ▸ 9 head shoulders 473 0.0%[0%–1%] 0.4% -3.8% 1.75[1.26–2.27] -82.5% 1.28 ▸ 10 rising wedge 28 3.6%[1%–18%] 0.8% -4.2% 1.98[-0.47–3.89] -36.8% 3.73